IB Geography Unit 1: Changing population case studies

Detailed examples of two or more forced movements, to include environmental and political push factors, and consequences for people and places (Kiribati)

• Overview
  • Kiribati is a low-lying Pacific island nation with a population of about 117,000, of which around 112,000 live on Tarawa Atoll. 
  • The country is extremely vulnerable to climate change and rising sea levels, which are driving large-scale internal and external migration.
• Physical vulnerability 
  • Average elevation is just 2 m above sea level; the highest point, in the capital, is only 33 m. 
  • Sea level rise of ~3.2 mm per year causes frequent high tides and flooding. 
  • Two of Kiribati’s islands have already been completely submerged. 
  • Islands are very narrow – some only a few hundred metres wide – so there is little inland space to retreat to.
• Environmental challenge
  • Coral reef bleaching 
    • Warmer, more acidic oceans (from CO₂ absorption) kill coral reefs. 
    • Reefs are vital both as a habitat for marine life and as a natural barrier against waves and storm surges. 
    • Their loss makes the islands even more vulnerable to flooding and undermines tourism and fishing.
  • Water scarcity 
    • Rainfall is infrequent, so Kiribati relies on underground freshwater lenses. 
    • Rising sea levels cause saltwater intrusion, contaminating drinking water and killing crops. 
    • In 2008, flooding destroyed the country’s largest water reserve when a collapsed bridge broke key pipelines. 
    • Limited land area also means human burials contaminate groundwater.
• Social and economic impacts
  • Many residents are forced to move to the few areas that remain dry, leading to extreme overcrowding on Tarawa. 
  • Most people live in informal squatter settlements without proper sanitation or waste management. 
  • Accumulated trash causes pollution and disease spread. Job shortages and lack of natural resources limit economic opportunities. 
  • Tourism, once a key income source, has collapsed further due to coral reef loss and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Future risks 
  • Scientists predict that most of Kiribati could be fully submerged within 25 years. 
  • Engineering solutions such as sea walls would offer only temporary protection.
• Migration response
  • The government recognises that eventual relocation of the entire population is inevitable. 
  • The “Migration with Dignity” policy encourages planned, voluntary migration rather than chaotic displacement after a disaster. 
    • Focuses on education and skills training, enabling migrants to find regular employment and integrate into host countries. 
    • Aims to ensure citizens are seen as economic contributors, not refugees. 
  • Kiribati has purchased land in Fiji for potential resettlement. 
  • The government is also working with Australia and New Zealand to gradually move people there.
• Migration consequences
  • For the host
    • Crime and Exploitation: People who have lost homes, possessions, and income may turn to theft or be recruited by criminal networks, such as drug traffickers, out of desperation. 
    • Job Market Pressures: Migrants often accept lower wages, making them attractive to employers but potentially displacing local workers and fueling tensions. 
    • Public Services & Infrastructure: Sudden population growth increases demand for healthcare, housing, and other services, sometimes beyond capacity. Overcrowding can lead to unemployment and economic stress. 
    • Environmental Impact: More people mean greater waste, pollution, and pressure on natural resources. 
    • Economic Opportunities: Migration is not purely negative. Where there is space and labor shortage, migrants can strengthen the economy, fill vital jobs, and contribute taxes.
  • For the migrants
    • Discrimination & exploitation: Negative stereotypes can lead to prejudice and hostility. Desperation for work leaves many vulnerable to unfair wages and unsafe conditions. 
    • Living Conditions: Many spend time in refugee camps – temporary or long-term – where sanitation, clean water, and healthcare are often inadequate, fostering disease and insecurity.

Detailed examples of two or more forced movements, to include environmental and political push factors, and consequences for people and places (Nigeria)

• The Nigeria case study provided earlier can be applied here

Topic 3: Challenges and opportunities

One case study of a country benefiting from a demographic dividend (South Korea)

• Background
  • Transition began after the Korean War in the late 1950s. 
  • Strategic policies were implemented to benefit from a demographic dividend (large working-age population relative to dependents).
• Health/Family planning
  • 1960s: First family planning campaign introduced. 
  • Birth rates fell from over 6 children per woman to 1.2 in 2005, currently 0.98. 
  • Smaller youth-dependent population reduced government expenditure on dependents. 
  • Freed-up resources were invested in economic development, infrastructure, and education.
• Education
  • 1950s: About half of children attended school; system outdated. 
  • New education reforms increased school enrolment to 97%. 
  • Focus on skills and knowledge needed for economic development. 
  • Women’s education promoted: 
    • Women married later and had fewer children, reducing birth rates further. 
    • Women entered the workforce, contributing to economic growth.
• Government policies
  • Encouraged foreign investment. 
  • Normalised relations with Japan, boosting trade and access to capital. 
  • Invested heavily in education to prepare a skilled, productive workforce. 
  • Tackled unemployment proactively through infrastructure and industry projects.
• Economic development 
  • Large-scale construction of infrastructure, steel plants, automotive and technology industries, reforestation, and shipping. 
  • Relations with Japan facilitated trade and investment, especially in steel and manufactured goods. 
  • Policies maximized the economic benefits of a large working-age population, driving rapid growth.
• Outcomes
  • South Korea successfully leveraged the demographic dividend to achieve rapid economic development. 
  • Declining birth rates and smaller dependent populations allowed investment in human capital and industry. 
  • Skilled workforce and policy reforms created a highly industrialized and globally competitive economy.

Anti-natalist policy: China

• China implemented one of the world’s most severe population-control policies in 1979, aiming to curb rapid population growth that threatened to cause food shortages, unemployment, and pressure on resources.
• Policy details
  • Couples were generally limited to one child, with fines, job loss, and denial of government benefits for violations. 
  • Births per woman fell sharply from 5.7 in 1970 to about 1.7 today. 
  • China’s population growth was reduced by an estimated 300 million people in just 20 years. 
  • Demographers now predict the population will peak around 2033.
• Adjustments to the policy
  • 2013: Couples allowed a second child if either parent was an only child. 
  • 2015: Policy fully relaxed to permit two children per couple.
  • Despite the change, birth rates have remained low due to high living costs, urbanisation, and shifting cultural norms.
• Effects on population structure
  • Gender Imbalance: A strong cultural preference for sons led to sex-selective abortions, female abandonment, and infanticide. 
  • Today, there are about 118 males for every 100 females, one of the most skewed ratios in the world. 
  • Ageing Population: Fertility remains well below the replacement rate of 2.1, especially in cities where education and housing costs are high. As a result, China is moving toward a rapidly ageing population with a shrinking workforce.
• Economic and social challenges
  • The dependency ratio is rising: each only child may need to support two parents and four grandparents. 
  • China’s traditional system – where children care for elderly parents – is under strain as younger adults work full-time jobs in urban areas. 
  • Healthcare and welfare services for the elderly are underdeveloped because they were rarely needed in the past. 
  • The government faces mounting pressure to expand pensions, healthcare, and elderly care facilities, requiring massive investment.
• Current situation
  • Even with the two-child policy, experts doubt a “baby boom.” 
  • Urbanisation, high living costs, and changing attitudes mean large families are increasingly rare. 
  • China’s shrinking working-age population is already creating labour shortages and could slow economic growth while increasing the tax burden on younger generations.

Pro-natalist policy: Russia

• After the USSR collapsed in 1991, Russia’s population began to shrink rapidly. Fertility rate fell to around 1.2 children per woman in the early 2000s (replacement level is 2.1). High male mortality from alcohol abuse, smoking, poor healthcare and economic instability worsened the decline. Population dropped from 148 million in 1991 to about 143 million by 2005, raising fears of labour shortages, economic stagnation, and military weakness.
• Policy launch: Introduced in 2006 under President Vladimir Putin to reverse population decline by encouraging larger families.
• Measures
  • Financial incentives
    • “Maternity Capital” (2007) – about 450,000 rubles (~US $7,000) given to mothers for the second or subsequent child. 
    • Money can be used only for housing, children’s education, or the mother’s pension fund. 
    • Extra monthly child allowances, tax breaks, and subsidised childcare for large families.
  • Social support
    • Expanded free preschool places and improved maternity healthcare. 
    • Priority kindergarten access and subsidised mortgages/utilities for families with three or more children.
  • Promotion campaigns
    • National advertising encouraging early marriage and bigger families. 
    • “Day of Conception” in some regions (e.g., Ulyanovsk) gives couples a day off work with prizes for babies born nine months later.

Aging population: Japan

• Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world. 
• Median age: ~49 years (highest globally). 
• Life expectancy: ~84 years (one of the world’s longest). Fertility rate: ~1.3 children per woman (far below the replacement level of 2.1). 
• Population peaked at 128 million in 2010 and has since fallen to about 124 million (2024).
• Causes: 
  • Low birth rates due to late marriages, high childcare costs, urban lifestyles, and women prioritising careers. 
  • High life expectancy from excellent healthcare, diet, and living standards.
• Population structure
  • Around 29% of the population is over 65, compared to about 10% globally. 
  • Dependency ratio is rising: fewer workers support a growing elderly population. 
  • Workforce is shrinking by ~650,000 people per year.
• Economic impacts
  • Labour shortages in key sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, and technology. 
  • Increased government spending on pensions and healthcare—social security now consumes ~28% of government budget. 
  • Higher taxes on the working-age population to fund elderly care. 
  • Lower domestic demand for housing, consumer goods, and childcare services, slowing economic growth. 
  • Businesses face a shrinking domestic market, discouraging investment.
• Social impacts
  • Pressure on healthcare and elderly care facilities; shortage of carers. 
  • Growth of “elderly-only” households—over 6 million single elderly households, increasing isolation and mental health issues. 
  • Rural depopulation: young people migrate to cities, leaving ageing villages with declining services. 
  • Rising numbers of kodokushi (“lonely deaths”) where elderly people die alone and remain undiscovered.
• Government responses
  • Encouraging higher fertility: Childcare subsidies, free preschool, extended parental leave, and cash incentives for families with more children.
  • Raising retirement age: Gradual increase from 60 to 65+, encouraging older people to remain in work.
  • Automation and robotics: Heavy investment in industrial robots and AI to offset worker shortage
  • Migration: Japan now accepts larger amounts of migrants
  • Community support programmes: Promotion of local volunteer groups, home-care services, and “age-friendly” city planning.

Gender equality: Rwanda

• Despite being one of the world’s poorest countries, Rwanda ranks high in gender equality. Girls’ school enrolment: 97% vs 95% for boys, unusual for a low-income country (LIC).
• Historical context
  • The 1994 Genocide caused around 1 million deaths, mostly men. 
  • After the genocide, women had to rebuild the country, take government and official positions, and manage businesses and households. 
  • Prior to the genocide, women were largely confined to domestic roles: unable to own land, run businesses, work formally, or hold political office.
• Policy and social changes
  • Women gained access to government and leadership positions, helping implement policies promoting gender equality. 
  • Post-genocide, NGOs and organizations were established to support survivors of sexual violence, as around 350,000 women were raped during the genocide. 
  • Legal reforms: 2009: Marital rape became a criminal offence. 
  • Special police units were created to tackle rape and domestic abuse. 
  • National awareness campaigns promoted women’s rights and equality, challenging traditional norms.
• Impacts on society and economy
  • GDP has increased since the genocide due to a more inclusive workforce. 
  • Women now contribute to business, land ownership, and the economy.
  • Poverty fell from 60% pre-genocide to 45% today, partly due to women’s increased economic participation.
  • More resources allocated to healthcare and education benefiting all citizens
  • Rape rates have decreased to about 2.4 per 100,000 today.
• Key points
  • Rwanda demonstrates how historical events and demographic shifts can accelerate gender equality. 
  • Women’s empowerment has economic, social, and political benefits. 
  • Legal reforms, education, and social campaigns have transformed societal norms, making Rwanda a global leader in gender equality among LICs.

Human trafficking: Blue Dragon

• Founded in 2004 by Michael Brosowski, an Australian teacher who moved to Hanoi in 2002. Motivated by witnessing widespread child and adult trafficking, poverty, slavery, and child imprisonment in Vietnam. Blue Dragon’s mission is to rescue trafficking victims and rebuild their lives, providing long-term support beyond immediate rescue.
• Goals
  • Rescue victims of sex trade, forced labour, and human trafficking. 
  • Provide medium- and long-term safe accommodation for survivors without homes. 
  • Offer medical care, food, and necessities to restore physical health. Provide psychological support for trauma, depression, anxiety, and other mental health issues. 
  • Support victims in returning to education or training, including tutoring and workshop programs. 
  • Ensure safe reunification with family where possible. Prevent trafficking in rural provinces by supporting disadvantaged families and keeping children in school.
• Successes
  • 2007: First rescue – six teenage girls sold to brothels in China. 
  • Since then: 
    • 307 young women rescued from brothels and forced marriages. 
    • 338 women assisted to safely return home. 
    • 12,800 young women reconnected with home, family, school, and community support. 
    • 4,728 children sent back to school. 
    • 244 teens placed in human-rights-respecting jobs. 
    • 456 girls and boys provided with safe accommodation.
  • Limitations/challenges
    • Limited cooperation with Vietnamese police and border control, allowing ongoing trafficking. 
    • Sex tourism in Vietnam attracts foreign demand, increasing trafficking risks. 
    • Limited access and cooperation with foreign countries where victims are trafficked, making rescues difficult. 
    • As an NGO, Blue Dragon’s capacity to overcome government or international policy obstacles is limited.
  • Overall impact
    • Blue Dragon provides holistic support for trafficking survivors, combining rescue, rehabilitation, education, and reintegration. 
    • Despite limitations, the organisation has substantially reduced harm for thousands of children and women, while raising awareness and preventing trafficking in vulnerable communities.

LIC birth rates: Chad

• 1 in 11 chance of a mother dying during childbirth in Chad, compared to 1 in 5,000 in the UK. 
• Causes: 
  • Lack of trained medical personnel. 
  • Limited access to caesarean sections, blood, anaesthesia, and essential drugs. 
  • Eclampsia after birth is often untreated due to absence of Magnesium Sulfate. 
  • Many women give birth at home because hospitals are too expensive or inaccessible, increasing the risk of death.
• Infant mortality
  • Miscarriages and infant deaths are very common (example: one woman had 8 children, 4 of whom died). 
  • Almost half a million women die annually due to childbirth-related complications, mostly in poor countries. 
  • Unsafe abortion contributes significantly to maternal deaths in countries where abortion is illegal (e.g., Chad and many sub-Saharan countries).
• Healthcare system challenges
  • Hospitals often lack blood supplies, essential drugs and medical equipment.
  • Families must find blood donors themselves. 
  • Limited government funding and poor infrastructure make interventions difficult. 
  • Corruption prevents effective allocation of resources; for example, Chad has recently discovered oil wealth, but little is used to fund healthcare.
• Socio-cultural factors
  • Women have low social status in many LICs. 
  • Women are often treated as “birth machines”, with their health and needs neglected. Poverty limits access to necessities, making medical treatment unaffordable.
• Global initiatives
  • Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) aimed to reduce maternal mortality by three-quarters by 2015. 
  • Signed by 189 world leaders, reflecting global commitment to improving maternal and child health.

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