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Probability

Practice exam-style IB Math AA questions for Probability, aligned with the syllabus and grouped by topic.

Paper
Difficulty
Status
Level
Question 1
SL • Paper 1
Easy
Non Calculator

A fair six-sided die is rolled twice. Let AA be the event that at least one of the two results is a 66.

A

Find P(A)P(A).

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

In 180180 repetitions of this experiment, find the expected number of times event AA occurs.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 2
SL • Paper 1
Easy
Non Calculator

Events AA and BB are mutually exclusive. It is given that P(A)=aP(A)=a, P(B)=2aP(B)=2a and P(AB)=34P(A\cup B)=\frac{3}{4}.

A

Find the value of aa.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Determine whether AA and BB are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 3
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A bag contains 44 red counters, 33 blue counters and 22 green counters. A counter is selected at random, its colour is recorded and it is then replaced. This is repeated three times.

A

Find the probability that at least one green counter is selected.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

The experiment is carried out 14581458 times. Find the expected number of experiments in which at least one green counter is selected.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 4
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

Events AA and BB are such that P(A)=12P(A)=\frac{1}{2}, P(B)=25P(B')=\frac{2}{5} and P(AB)=14P(A\cap B)=\frac{1}{4}.

A

Find P(AB)P(A\cup B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(AB)P(A\mid B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether AA and BB are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 5
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A box contains 55 white balls, 33 black balls and 22 red balls. Two balls are selected at random without replacement.

A

Find the probability that the two balls selected are the same colour.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that the two balls selected are the same colour, find the probability that they are both white.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 6
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

In a group of 8080 students, 3030 study French, 4444 study German and 1818 study both French and German. One student is selected at random. Let FF be the event that the student studies French and GG be the event that the student studies German.

A

Find P(FG)P(F\cup G).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(FG)P(F\mid G).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether FF and GG are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 7
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A disease is present in 150\frac{1}{50} of a population. A test gives a positive result for 910\frac{9}{10} of people who have the disease and for 120\frac{1}{20} of people who do not have the disease. One person is selected at random and tested. Let DD be the event that the person has the disease and TT be the event that the test is positive.

A

Find P(T)P(T).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that the test is positive, find the probability that the person has the disease.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 8
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A signal is sent using one of three channels, AA, BB and CC. The probabilities that the signal is sent using channels AA, BB and CC are 14\frac{1}{4}, 12\frac{1}{2} and 14\frac{1}{4} respectively. The probabilities that an error occurs when channels AA, BB and CC are used are 23\frac{2}{3}, 13\frac{1}{3} and 16\frac{1}{6} respectively. Let EE be the event that an error occurs.

A

Find P(E)P(E).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that an error occurred, find the probability that channel BB was used.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether events BB and EE are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 9
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A fair four-sided spinner is numbered 11, 22, 33, 44. A fair six-sided die is numbered 11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66. The spinner is spun once and the die is rolled once. The event MM is that the sum of the two numbers is a multiple of 33.

A

Find P(M)\mathrm{P}(M).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

The experiment is repeated 2020 times. Find, to four decimal places, the probability that MM occurs at least once.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Find the expected number of occurrences of MM in 150150 repetitions of the experiment.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 10
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

In a group of 200200 students, 118118 study chemistry, 9292 study biology, and 4646 study neither chemistry nor biology. Let CC be the event that a student studies chemistry and let BB be the event that a student studies biology.

A Venn diagram with two overlapping circles inside a rectangle representing the sample space. The circles are labelled C and B, with the outside region representing students studying neither subject. No region values are shown.
A

Find the number of students who study both chemistry and biology.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(CB)\mathrm{P}(C\mid B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether CC and BB are independent events. Give a reason for your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 11
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A bag contains 55 red balls, 33 blue balls and 22 green balls. Two balls are selected at random without replacement.

A

Find the probability that exactly one of the two balls is red.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that exactly one of the two balls is red, find the probability that the first ball selected is red.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Let AA be the event that the first ball is red and BB be the event that the second ball is red. Determine whether AA and BB are independent.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 12
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A company sells two types of calculators. A randomly selected calculator is graphing with probability 0.600.60. The probability that a graphing calculator is faulty is 0.080.08, and the probability that a non-graphing calculator is faulty is 0.030.03. Let GG be the event that the calculator is graphing and let FF be the event that it is faulty.

A two-stage tree diagram. The first split is graphing and non-graphing calculators, and each branch then splits into faulty and not faulty. Branch labels show event names but not probabilities.
A

Find P(GF)\mathrm{P}(G\cap F').

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(F)\mathrm{P}(F).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that a selected calculator is not faulty, find the probability that it is graphing.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 13
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A box is chosen at random from boxes AA, BB and CC with probabilities 12\frac{1}{2}, 13\frac{1}{3} and 16\frac{1}{6} respectively. A ball is then selected from the chosen box. The probabilities of selecting a red ball from boxes AA, BB and CC are 14\frac{1}{4}, 12\frac{1}{2} and 34\frac{3}{4} respectively. Let RR be the event that the selected ball is red.

A

Find P(R)P(R).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that the selected ball is red, find the probability that it came from box CC.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that the selected ball is not red, find the probability that it came from box BB.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 14
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A container is chosen at random. Container AA is chosen with probability 25\frac{2}{5} and container BB is chosen with probability 35\frac{3}{5}. A counter is then selected from the chosen container. The probability that a red counter is selected from container AA is 14\frac{1}{4}, and the probability that a red counter is selected from container BB is pp. It is given that, if the selected counter is red, the probability that it came from container BB is 34\frac{3}{4}.

A

Determine the value of pp.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

Using this value of pp, find the probability that the counter came from container AA, given that it is not red.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 15
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

Events BB and BB' form a partition of the sample space, with P(B)=23P(B)=\frac{2}{3}. An event AA is such that P(AB)=kP(A\mid B)=k and P(AB)=14P(A\mid B')=\frac{1}{4}. It is given that P(BA)=23P(B\mid A)=\frac{2}{3}.

A

Determine the value of kk.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

Hence determine whether AA and BB are independent. Justify your answer.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 16
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

Three factories, F1F_1, F2F_2 and F3F_3, produce components for a company. The probabilities that a randomly selected component was produced by F1F_1, F2F_2 and F3F_3 are 12\frac{1}{2}, 13\frac{1}{3} and 16\frac{1}{6} respectively. The probabilities that a component is defective, given that it was produced by F1F_1, F2F_2 and F3F_3, are 120\frac{1}{20}, 110\frac{1}{10} and 15\frac{1}{5} respectively. Let DD be the event that a randomly selected component is defective.

A

Find P(D)P(D).

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that the component is defective, find the probability that it was produced by F3F_3.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that the component is not defective, find the probability that it was produced by F1F_1.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 17
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

Two events AA and BB are independent. It is given that P(A)=0.42\mathrm{P}(A)=0.42 and P(AB)=0.70\mathrm{P}(A\cup B)=0.70. Let P(B)=p\mathrm{P}(B)=p.

A

Find the value of pp.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(AB)\mathrm{P}(A'\mid B).

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 18
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

In a computer simulation of 50005000 independent trials, an event EE occurred 17381738 times. A theoretical model predicts that the probability of EE in one trial is 0.360.36.

A

Write down the relative frequency of EE in the simulation.

[1]
Write your answer here...
B

Using the theoretical model, find the expected number of occurrences of EE in 12001200 trials.

[1]
Write your answer here...
C

Using the theoretical model, find the probability that EE occurs at least once in 88 independent trials.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Find the least number of independent trials required for the probability that EE occurs at least once to exceed 0.990.99.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 19
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A disease affects 1.8%1.8\% of a population. A screening test gives a positive result for 94%94\% of people who have the disease and for 7%7\% of people who do not have the disease. A person is selected at random and tested.

A two-stage probability tree. The first split is has disease and does not have disease, and the second split is positive test and negative test. Branch labels are shown without numerical probabilities.
A

Find the probability that the person tests positive.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that the person tests positive, find the probability that the person has the disease.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

In a town of 1000010\,000 people, find the expected number of people who test positive but do not have the disease.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 20
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A factory has three machines, AA, BB and CC. Machine AA produces 45%45\% of the items, machine BB produces 35%35\% and machine CC produces the rest. The probabilities that an item is defective given that it was produced by AA, BB and CC are 0.0120.012, 0.0180.018 and 0.0300.030 respectively.

A

Find the probability that a randomly selected item is defective.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that a selected item is defective, find the probability that it was produced by machine CC.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether the event that an item is defective is independent of the event that it was produced by machine CC.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 21
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

Orders placed with an online shop come from three regions: north, east and south. The probabilities that an order comes from these regions are 0.500.50, 0.300.30 and 0.200.20 respectively. The probabilities that an order is late given that it is from north, east and south are 0.040.04, 0.070.07 and 0.100.10 respectively.

A

Given that an order is late, find the probability that it came from the east region.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that an order is not late, find the probability that it came from the north region.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Two orders are selected independently. Find the probability that exactly one of the two orders is late.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 22
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

Passengers at an airport join one of three security queues, Q1Q_1, Q2Q_2 and Q3Q_3. The probabilities that a passenger joins Q1Q_1, Q2Q_2 and Q3Q_3 are 0.250.25, 0.450.45 and 0.300.30 respectively. The probabilities that a passenger waits more than 1515 minutes given that they joined Q1Q_1, Q2Q_2 and Q3Q_3 are 0.180.18, 0.120.12 and 0.080.08 respectively.

A

Find the probability that a randomly selected passenger waits more than 1515 minutes.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that a passenger waits more than 1515 minutes, find the probability that they joined Q2Q_2.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that a passenger does not wait more than 1515 minutes, find the probability that they joined either Q1Q_1 or Q3Q_3.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 23
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

A bag contains eight tiles, each labelled with one letter from the word ANALYSIS. Three tiles are selected at random, one after another, without replacement.

A
I.

Find the probability that the first tile selected is labelled SS.

[1]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find the probability that the first two tiles selected are both labelled AA.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find the probability that exactly one of the three tiles selected is labelled AA.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that exactly one of the three tiles selected is labelled AA, find the probability that the first tile selected is labelled AA. If you did not obtain an answer to part (b), use 1528\frac{15}{28}.

[3]
Write your answer here...
D

The experiment is repeated 8484 times. Find the expected number of times exactly one tile labelled AA is selected.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 24
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

In a school club of 100100 students, each student may attend drama rehearsals, coding sessions, both, or neither. Let DD be the event that a student attends drama rehearsals and CC be the event that a student attends coding sessions. It is known that 3939 students attend drama rehearsals and 2525 students attend neither activity. The Venn diagram represents the situation, where xx is the number of students who attend both activities.

A rectangular universal set labelled with two overlapping circles. The left circle is labelled D and the right circle is labelled C. The intersection is labelled x, the region outside both circles is labelled 25, and the drama-only and coding-only regions are left as blank regions to be found.
A
I.

Write down n(DC)n(D\cup C).

[1]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(DC)=13P(D\mid C)=\frac{1}{3}, find the value of xx.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

Find the probability that a randomly selected student attends coding sessions but not drama rehearsals. If you did not obtain an answer to part (a)(ii), use x=18x=18.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether CC and DD are independent events. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Two students are selected at random without replacement. Find the probability that both selected students attend exactly one of the two activities.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 25
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Non Calculator

Two fair four-sided dice are rolled. Each die is labelled 11, 22, 33, 44. Let SS be the event that the sum of the two numbers is prime. Let TT be the event that the product of the two numbers is even.

A
I.

Find P(S)P(S).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find P(T)P(T).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(TS)P(T\mid S).

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether SS and TT are independent events. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 26
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A security code is generated by first selecting a number xx from 1,2,3,4,5\\{1,2,3,4,5\\} and then selecting a number yy from 1,2,3,4\\{1,2,3,4\\}. All 2020 ordered pairs (x,y)(x,y) are equally likely.

Let AA be the event that the product xyxy is even. Let BB be the event that x+y6x+y\ge 6.

A
I.

Find P(AB)P(A\cap B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find P(A)P(A).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Find P(AB)P(A\cup B).

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find P(AB)P(A\mid B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

The code is generated repeatedly and independently. Find the least number of codes that must be generated so that the probability of obtaining at least one code satisfying both AA and BB is greater than 0.990.99.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 27
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A survey of 240240 commuters records whether they use a bicycle, event BB, and whether they use a train, event TT, during a typical week. It is known that 108108 commuters use a bicycle, 9696 use a train, and P(BT)=0.375P(B\mid T)=0.375.

A
I.

Find the number of commuters who use both a bicycle and a train.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find the number of commuters who use neither a bicycle nor a train.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

commuter who does not use a bicycle is selected at random. Find the probability that this commuter uses a train.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether the events BB and TT are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Two commuters are selected at random without replacement. Find the probability that both commuters use exactly one of the two forms of transport.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 28
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A workshop uses two checks on each product. Let VV be the event that a product fails the visual check and EE the event that it fails the electronic check. For one product, P(V)=0.18P(V)=0.18, P(E)=0.11P(E)=0.11 and P(VE)=0.25P(V\cup E)=0.25.

A

Find P(VE)P(V\cap E).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Given that a product fails the visual check, find the probability that it also fails the electronic check.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Assuming the outcomes for different products are independent, find the probability that none of the 2020 products fails either check.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

For a different product line, reset the event notation: let VV be the event that a product fails the visual check and EE be the event that it fails the electronic check. Let q=P(E)q=P(E), with P(V)=0.18P(V)=0.18, P(VE)=0.275P(V\cup E)=0.275 and P(VE)=0.30P(V\mid E)=0.30.

I.

Find the value of qq.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

For this different product line, determine whether VV and EE are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 29
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A transport company simulated 12001200 bus journeys using its timetable model. Of these journeys, 520520 were during peak times and 680680 were off-peak. There were 9191 late peak-time journeys and 136136 late off-peak journeys.

Let PP be the event that a journey is during peak time, and let LL be the event that a journey is late.

A
I.

Find the relative frequency of late journeys in the simulation.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

late journey is selected at random from the simulation. Find the probability that it was during peak time.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Using the simulation results, determine whether the events PP and LL appear to be independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

For the remaining parts, assume that future journeys are independent and that each has the same probability of being late as in the simulation, P(L)=2271200P(L)=\dfrac{227}{1200}. If you did not obtain this value, use 0.1890.189.

I.

Find the expected number of late journeys among 960960 future journeys.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find the probability that at least one of 1212 future journeys is late.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Find the least number of future journeys needed so that the probability that at least one is late is greater than 0.9950.995.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 30
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A veterinary clinic classifies cats with a particular symptom into three groups: healthy HH, mildly ill MM, and seriously ill SS. The prior probabilities are P(H)=0.10\mathrm{P}(H)=0.10, P(M)=0.25\mathrm{P}(M)=0.25 and P(S)=0.65\mathrm{P}(S)=0.65. A diagnostic test is positive with probabilities 0.850.85, 0.300.30 and kk for cats in groups HH, MM and SS respectively. It is known that, given a positive test, the probability that a cat is healthy is 0.400.40.

A

Find the value of kk.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

Using this value of kk, find the probability that a cat is seriously ill given that the test is positive.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 31
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

Songs played by a music app are classified as pop, rock or jazz. The probabilities that a randomly selected song is pop, rock or jazz are 0.500.50, 0.300.30 and 0.200.20 respectively. The probability that a user skips a pop song within 1010 seconds is pp. The corresponding probabilities for a rock song and a jazz song are 0.240.24 and 0.090.09 respectively. Given that a song is skipped within 1010 seconds, the probability that it is jazz is 0.120.12.

A

Find the value of pp.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

Find the probability that a skipped song is pop.

[1]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether the event that a song is skipped within 1010 seconds is independent of the genre of the song. Give a reason for your answer.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 32
SL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A biased coin is tossed repeatedly. The probability of obtaining heads on any toss is pp, where 0<p<10<p<1. Tosses are independent.

A
I.

Write down an expression, in terms of pp, for the probability of obtaining exactly two heads in three tosses.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Write down an expression, in terms of pp, for the probability of obtaining exactly one head in three tosses.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

It is given that the probability of obtaining exactly two heads in three tosses is equal to the probability of obtaining exactly one head in three tosses. Find pp.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Using this value of pp, find the probability that at least one head is obtained in four tosses.

[1]
Write your answer here...
D

Using this value of pp, the experiment of tossing the coin four times is repeated 6464 times. Find the expected number of experiments in which at least one head is obtained.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 33
SL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

Ten cards are numbered 11 to 1010. Two cards are selected at random, one after another, without replacement. Let EE be the event that the sum of the two numbers is odd. Let FF be the event that the product of the two numbers is a multiple of 33.

A
I.

Find P(E)P(E).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find P(F)P(F).

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(FE)P(F\mid E).

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether EE and FF are independent events. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Find the probability that neither EE nor FF occurs.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 34
SL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

Events AA and BB are in the same sample space. It is given that P(A)=25P(A)=\frac{2}{5}, P(BA)=14P(B\mid A)=\frac{1}{4} and P(BA)=kP(B\mid A')=k.

A
I.

Find P(AB)P(A\cap B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find an expression for P(B)P(B) in terms of kk.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that P(AB)=710P(A\cup B)=\frac{7}{10}, find the value of kk.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Using k=12k=\frac{1}{2}, find P(AB)P(A\mid B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Determine whether AA and BB are independent events. Justify your answer.

[1]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 35
HL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A mineral sample is known to have come from exactly one of three sites, AA, BB and CC. The probabilities that it came from sites AA, BB and CC are 25\frac{2}{5}, 25\frac{2}{5} and 15\frac{1}{5} respectively. A laboratory test records whether the sample contains a particular marker, MM. The probabilities of recording the marker for samples from sites AA, BB and CC are 16\frac{1}{6}, 13\frac{1}{3} and 34\frac{3}{4} respectively.

A
I.

Find P(M)P(M).

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find P(CM)P(C\mid M). If you did not obtain an answer to part (a)(i), use P(M)=720P(M)=\frac{7}{20}.

[1]
Write your answer here...
B

Given that the marker was not recorded, find the probability that the sample came from site BB.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether the events CC and MM are independent. Justify your answer.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 36
HL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A message received by a company is either internal, II, or external, EE. The probability that a message is internal is 35\frac{3}{5}. An automatic filter flags a message. Let FF be the event that a message is flagged. It is known that P(FI)=pP(F\mid I)=p and P(FE)=14P(F\mid E)=\frac{1}{4}.

A
I.

Write down an expression for P(F)P(F) in terms of pp.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(IF)=23P(I\mid F)=\frac{2}{3}, determine the value of pp.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Using p=13p=\frac{1}{3}, find P(EF)P(E\mid F').

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether FF and II are independent events. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 37
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A box contains 66 red tokens, 55 blue tokens and 44 yellow tokens. Three tokens are selected at random without replacement.

Let RR be the event that exactly two red tokens are selected. Let YY be the event that at least one yellow token is selected.

A
I.

Find P(R)P(R).

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

In 250250 repetitions of this selection process, find the expected number of times that event RR occurs.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Find P(Y)P(Y).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that exactly two red tokens are selected, find the probability that at least one yellow token is selected.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Determine whether the events RR and YY are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 38
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A box contains 99 adult wristbands, 66 child wristbands and 55 VIP wristbands. Two wristbands are selected at random without replacement.

A
I.

Find the probability that the two wristbands selected are of the same type.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that the two wristbands selected are of the same type, find the probability that they are both adult wristbands.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

wristband is selected and is found to be an adult wristband. It is not replaced. Two more wristbands are then selected without replacement. Find the probability that exactly one of these two wristbands is a child wristband.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

The original two-wristband selection is repeated independently. Find the least number of repetitions needed so that the probability of obtaining at least one pair of wristbands of the same type exceeds 0.980.98.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 39
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A wildlife camera records one animal at a time. The animal is classified as deer, fox or badger with probabilities 0.550.55, 0.300.30 and 0.150.15 respectively. The probability that the motion alarm is triggered is 0.200.20 for a deer, 0.450.45 for a fox and 0.700.70 for a badger.

Let AA be the event that the alarm is triggered.

A

Find P(A)P(A).

[3]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Given that the alarm is triggered, find the probability that the animal is a badger.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that the alarm is triggered, find the probability that the animal is either a fox or a badger.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Five alarm-triggered recordings are selected independently. Find the probability that at least one of them is a badger.

[2]
Write your answer here...
D

Determine whether the event that the animal is a deer is independent of the event AA. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 40
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

Emails received by a company are classified as personal, work-related or advertising. The probabilities of these classifications are 0.250.25, 0.500.50 and 0.250.25 respectively. The probability that an email is marked urgent is 0.080.08 if it is personal, pp if it is work-related, and 0.020.02 if it is advertising.

It is given that, for an email marked urgent, the probability that it is work-related is 0.800.80.

A

Find the value of pp.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

For the remaining parts, use p=0.200p=0.200. If you did not obtain this value, use p=0.200p=0.200.

I.

Find the probability that a randomly selected email is marked urgent.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that an email is not marked urgent, find the probability that it is personal.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether the event that an email is work-related is independent of the event that it is marked urgent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 41
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

An insurance company classifies policies as urban, suburban or rural. The probabilities of these classifications are 0.500.50, 0.300.30 and 0.200.20 respectively. The probability that a claim is made during a year is 0.060.06 for an urban policy, 0.040.04 for a suburban policy and rr for a rural policy.

It is given that, for a policy on which a claim is made, the probability that the policy is rural is 0.250.25.

A

Find the value of rr.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

For the remaining parts, use r=0.0700r=0.0700. If you did not obtain this value, use r=0.0700r=0.0700.

I.

Find the probability that a randomly selected policy has a claim during the year.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that a claim is made, find the probability that the policy is urban.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Given that no claim is made, find the probability that the policy is suburban.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 42
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A drone inspects solar panels and classifies each panel into one of three states: dusty, cracked or electrical fault. For a randomly selected panel, the prior probabilities of these states are 0.550.55, 0.300.30 and 0.150.15 respectively. The drone gives a warning signal SS with probabilities 0.180.18, 0.620.62 and 0.800.80 respectively for these three states.

A two-stage probability tree for the drone inspection system. The first branches are labelled dusty, cracked and electrical fault; each then branches to warning signal and no warning signal. Branch labels are to be placed beside the branches, with no terminal probabilities shown.
A
I.

Find P(S)P(S).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that the drone gives a warning signal, find the probability that the panel is cracked.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Find the probability that the panel is dusty, given that the drone does not give a warning signal.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that the drone gives a warning signal, find the probability that the panel has either a crack or an electrical fault.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

The company will send a technician only when the posterior probability of a crack or electrical fault is greater than a threshold tt. Determine the values of tt for which the company sends a technician exactly when the drone gives a warning signal.

[4]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 43
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

Cyclists entering a park choose one of three routes: road RR, gravel path GG or woodland trail WW. The probabilities that a cyclist chooses these routes are 0.400.40, 0.350.35 and 0.250.25 respectively. After rain, the probability that a cyclist is muddy is pp on route RR, 0.300.30 on route GG and 0.120.12 on route WW. It is observed that, given a cyclist is muddy, the probability that the cyclist used route RR is 0.500.50.

A probability tree with first branches labelled road, gravel path and woodland trail, and second branches labelled muddy and not muddy. The tree should indicate that the muddy probability on the road branch is unknown.
A
I.

Write down an expression for P(M)P(M) in terms of pp, where MM is the event that a cyclist is muddy.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find the value of pp.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Using p=0.3375p=0.3375, find the probability that a cyclist used the gravel path, given that the cyclist is not muddy.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Determine whether the events RR and MM are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Suppose more generally that P(R)=aP(R)=a, P(G)=bP(G)=b, P(W)=1abP(W)=1-a-b, P(MR)=pP(M\mid R)=p, P(MG)=gP(M\mid G)=g and P(MW)=wP(M\mid W)=w. Given that P(RM)=rP(R\mid M)=r, show that

p=r{bg+(1ab)w}a(1r)p=\frac{r\{bg+(1-a-b)w\}}{a(1-r)}
[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 44
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

At a cafe, let AA be the event that a customer orders using the cafe app and let BB be the event that the customer buys a pastry. It is known that P(A)=0.64P(A)=0.64, P(BA)=0.45P(B\mid A)=0.45 and P(BA)=xP(B\mid A')=x.

Event

Buys pastry BB

Does not buy pastry BB'

Total

Uses app AA

0.288

0.352

0.64

Does not use app AA'

0.36x0.36x

0.36(1x)0.36(1-x)

0.36

Total

0.288+0.36x0.288+0.36x

0.7120.36x0.712-0.36x

1

A
I.

Express P(AB)P(A\cap B), P(AB)P(A'\cap B) and P(B)P(B) in terms of xx where necessary.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(AB)=0.80P(A\mid B)=0.80, find xx.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Use x=0.200x=0.200 for this part.

I.

Find P(B)P(B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Determine whether AA and BB are independent events. Give a reason.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

For general events with P(A)=aP(A)=a, P(BA)=bP(B\mid A)=b and P(BA)=cP(B\mid A')=c, where 0<a<10<a<1, prove that AA and BB are independent if and only if b=cb=c.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 45
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A school is trialling three revision methods M1M_1, M2M_2 and M3M_3. A randomly selected student is in a class using M1M_1, M2M_2 or M3M_3 with probabilities 0.250.25, 0.500.50 and 0.250.25 respectively. The probabilities that a student passes a short quiz under these methods are 0.720.72, 0.640.64 and 0.520.52 respectively. Students from the same class may be treated as independent once the method is fixed.

Revision method

P(method)

P(pass \

method)

M1

0.25

0.72

M2

0.50

0.64

M3

0.25

0.52

A

Find the probability that a randomly selected student passes the quiz.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Given that a student passes, find the probability that the student used method M1M_1.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Two students are selected independently from the same unknown method group. Given that both pass, find the probability that the method is M1M_1.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Suppose nn students are selected independently from the same unknown method group and all nn students pass. Deduce which method has posterior probability tending to 11 as nn\to\infty, and justify your answer.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 46
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

One of three sealed bags AA, BB and CC is selected with probabilities 0.200.20, 0.500.50 and 0.300.30 respectively. Bag AA contains 66 red and 44 white discs, bag BB contains 33 red and 77 white discs, and bag CC contains 88 red and 22 white discs. Two discs are then selected without replacement from the chosen bag.

A diagram showing three bags labelled $A$, $B$ and $C$, each with a stated mixture of red and white discs, followed by two draws without replacement.
A
I.

Find the probability that both selected discs are red.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that both selected discs are red, find the probability that bag CC was selected.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Find the probability that exactly one of the two selected discs is red.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that exactly one selected disc is red, find the probability that bag BB was selected.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Suppose instead that discs are selected with replacement, and kk consecutive selected discs are red. Deduce which bag has posterior probability tending to 11 as kk\to\infty.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 47
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A satellite image tile is classified as forest FF, urban UU or water WW with prior probabilities 0.400.40, 0.450.45 and 0.150.15 respectively. Two independent algorithms, conditional on the true class, each decide whether to label the tile green. Algorithm 1 labels a tile green with probabilities 0.800.80, 0.100.10 and 0.350.35 respectively for FF, UU and WW. Algorithm 2 labels a tile green with probabilities 0.750.75, 0.200.20 and 0.300.30 respectively.

A diagram of a satellite tile being passed to two algorithms. The true class has three possible branches, and each algorithm outputs green or not green conditionally independently.
A

(a)

I.

Find the probability that algorithm 1 labels the tile green.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that algorithm 1 labels the tile green, find the probability that the tile is forest.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

(b)

I.

Given that both algorithms label the tile green, find the probability that the tile is forest.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that algorithm 1 labels the tile green but algorithm 2 does not, find the probability that the tile is water.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Explain why using two conditionally independent algorithms can give a stronger posterior conclusion than using algorithm 1 alone in this example.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 48
HL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A packet contains one seed selected from one of three greenhouses, G1G_1, G2G_2 and G3G_3. The probabilities that the seed is from G1G_1, G2G_2 and G3G_3 are 14\frac{1}{4}, 12\frac{1}{2} and 14\frac{1}{4} respectively. Let RR be the event that the seed germinates. It is known that P(RG1)=12P(R\mid G_1)=\frac{1}{2}, P(RG2)=kP(R\mid G_2)=k and P(RG3)=16P(R\mid G_3)=\frac{1}{6}.

A
I.

Find an expression for P(R)P(R) in terms of kk.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(G2R)=47P(G_2\mid R)=\frac{4}{7}, find kk.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Using k=49k=\frac{4}{9}, find P(G1R)P(G_1\mid R).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Using k=49k=\frac{4}{9}, find the probability that the seed is from G3G_3, given that it does not germinate.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 49
HL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A ceramic shard is classified as being from exactly one of three periods: early, middle or late. Let these events be EE, MM and LL respectively. It is known that P(E)=xP(E)=x, P(M)=12P(M)=\frac{1}{2} and P(L)=12xP(L)=\frac{1}{2}-x. A chemical trace, TT, is present with probabilities P(TE)=14P(T\mid E)=\frac{1}{4}, P(TM)=12P(T\mid M)=\frac{1}{2} and P(TL)=34P(T\mid L)=\frac{3}{4}.

A
I.

Find an expression for P(T)P(T) in terms of xx.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(ET)=17P(E\mid T)=\frac{1}{7}, find xx.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Using x=518x=\frac{5}{18}, find P(LT)P(L\mid T).

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Using x=518x=\frac{5}{18}, find P(MT)P(M\mid T').

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 50
HL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A courier parcel is sent by exactly one of three routes, R1R_1, R2R_2 and R3R_3, each with probability 13\frac{1}{3}. Let DD be the event that the parcel is delayed. It is known that P(DR1)=pP(D\mid R_1)=p, P(DR2)=14P(D\mid R_2)=\frac{1}{4} and P(DR3)=12P(D\mid R_3)=\frac{1}{2}.

A
I.

Find an expression for P(D)P(D) in terms of pp.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(R1D)=13P(R_1\mid D)=\frac{1}{3}, find pp.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Using p=38p=\frac{3}{8}, find P(R3D)P(R_3\mid D).

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether DD is independent of R1R_1, and whether DD is independent of R2R_2.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 51
HL • Paper 1
Hard
Non Calculator

A coin collector receives a coin from exactly one of three workshops, AA, BB and CC. The probabilities that the coin is from workshops AA, BB and CC are 12\frac{1}{2}, 14\frac{1}{4} and 14\frac{1}{4} respectively. Let HH be the event that the coin has a high silver content. It is known that P(HA)=13P(H\mid A)=\frac{1}{3}, P(HB)=23P(H\mid B)=\frac{2}{3} and P(HC)=qP(H\mid C)=q.

A
I.

Find an expression for P(H)P(H) in terms of qq.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that P(CH)=15P(C\mid H)=\frac{1}{5}, find qq.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B

Using q=13q=\frac{1}{3}, find the probability that the coin is from workshop BB, given that it has a high silver content.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Using q=13q=\frac{1}{3}, find the probability that the coin is from workshop AA or workshop CC, given that it does not have a high silver content.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 52
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A language-learning app classifies a user as beginner, intermediate or advanced. Initially, the probabilities of these classifications are 0.500.50, 0.300.30 and 0.200.20 respectively. The probability that a user requests a hint during a task is 0.620.62 for a beginner, 0.380.38 for an intermediate user and 0.140.14 for an advanced user.

Let HH be the event that a user requests a hint.

A

Find P(H)P(H).

[3]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Given that a user requests a hint, find the probability that the user is a beginner.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that a user does not request a hint, find the probability that the user is advanced.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

The app is used in a different school. The probability that a user is a beginner is qq. The remaining users are intermediate and advanced in the ratio 3:23:2. Assume that P(Hbeginner)=0.62P(H\mid\text{beginner})=0.62, P(Hintermediate)=0.38P(H\mid\text{intermediate})=0.38 and P(Hadvanced)=0.14P(H\mid\text{advanced})=0.14 remain unchanged in the different school. Find the value of qq if P(beginnerH)=0.75P(\text{beginner}\mid H)=0.75 in this school.

[5]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 53
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

Data packets on a network are routed through exactly one of three routers, R1R_1, R2R_2 and R3R_3. The probabilities that a packet is routed through R1R_1, R2R_2 and R3R_3 are 0.200.20, 0.500.50 and 0.300.30 respectively. The probabilities that a packet is corrupted when routed through R1R_1, R2R_2 and R3R_3 are aa, 0.040.04 and 0.090.09 respectively.

It is known that, given a packet is corrupted, the probability that it was routed through R1R_1 is 0.250.25.

A

Find the value of aa.

[4]
Write your answer here...
B

For the remaining parts, use a=0.0783a=0.0783. If you did not obtain this value, use a=0.0783a=0.0783.

I.

Find the probability that a randomly selected packet is corrupted.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that a packet is not corrupted, find the probability that it was routed through R2R_2.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Determine whether the event that a packet is routed through R3R_3 is independent of the event that it is corrupted. Justify your answer.

[2]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 54
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

An archaeologist classifies newly discovered sites as Early, Middle or Late period. The probabilities of these classifications are 0.300.30, 0.450.45 and 0.250.25 respectively. The probability that an ornament is found at a site is 0.120.12 for an Early site, 0.280.28 for a Middle site and 0.520.52 for a Late site.

Let OO be the event that an ornament is found.

A

Find P(O)P(O).

[3]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Given that an ornament is found, find the probability that the site is Late period.

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that no ornament is found, find the probability that the site is not Late period.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Two sites are selected independently. Given that exactly one of the two sites has an ornament, find the probability that the first site is Late period.

[5]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 55
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A wildlife camera is placed in one of three habitats H1H_1, H2H_2 and H3H_3 with prior probabilities 0.500.50, 0.300.30 and 0.200.20 respectively. On any one night, the probability that a rare animal is detected is 0.080.08, 0.180.18 and 0.350.35 respectively in these habitats. Detections on different nights are independent once the habitat is fixed.

A three-branch probability tree for habitat followed by detection or no detection on one night. A second small panel indicates two nights in the same habitat with independent detection branches.
A

Find the probability that the rare animal is detected on a single night.

[3]
Write your answer here...
B
I.

Given that the rare animal is detected on a single night, find the probability that the camera is in habitat H3H_3.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

The camera remains in the same unknown habitat for two nights. Given that the animal is detected on exactly one of the two nights, find the probability that the camera is in habitat H3H_3.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

Suppose the camera remains in the same unknown habitat for nn nights and the animal is detected on every night. Show that the posterior probability that the camera is in H3H_3 tends to 11 as nn\to\infty.

[4]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 56
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

Fragments of pottery found at a site are believed to come from one of three kilns K1K_1, K2K_2 and K3K_3 with prior probabilities 0.450.45, 0.400.40 and 0.150.15 respectively. Let BB be the event that a fragment has a blue glaze and TT be the event that it has a thin wall. The conditional probabilities are shown in the table. Within each kiln, the events BB and TT may be treated as independent.

Kiln

Prior probability

P(B\

kiln)

P(T\

kiln)

K1

0.45

0.20

0.60

K2

0.40

0.55

0.30

K3

0.15

0.70

0.50

A
I.

Using P(BK1)=0.20P(B\mid K_1)=0.20, P(BK2)=0.55P(B\mid K_2)=0.55 and P(BK3)=0.70P(B\mid K_3)=0.70, find P(B)P(B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that a fragment has blue glaze, find the probability that it came from kiln K2K_2.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

The probabilities of a thin wall are P(TK1)=0.60P(T\mid K_1)=0.60, P(TK2)=0.30P(T\mid K_2)=0.30 and P(TK3)=0.50P(T\mid K_3)=0.50.

I.

Find P(BT)P(B\cap T).

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Given that a fragment has blue glaze and a thin wall, find the probability that it came from kiln K3K_3.

[2]
Write your answer here...
C

Although BB and TT are independent within each kiln, determine whether BB and TT are independent for a randomly selected fragment from the whole site.

[3]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 57
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A lock uses a four-digit code. Each digit is chosen from 0,1,2,,90,1,2,\ldots,9, repetition is allowed and all 10410^4 codes are equally likely. Let AA be the event that the code contains at least one digit 77. Let BB be the event that the first and last digits are the same.

First digit \ Last digit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

100 (BB)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

1

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

2

100

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

3

100

100

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

100

100

100

4

100

100

100

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

100

100

5

100

100

100

100

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

100

6

100

100

100

100

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

7

100

100

100

100

100

100

100 (BB)

100

100

100

8

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100 (BB)

100

9

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100 (BB)

A
I.

Find P(A)P(A).

[2]
Write your answer here...
II.

Find P(AB)P(A\cap B).

[2]
Write your answer here...
III.

Determine whether AA and BB are independent.

[2]
Write your answer here...
B

Now consider a code of nn positions, with each position independently chosen from mm equally likely symbols, where n2n\ge2 and m>1m>1 are integers. Let AmA_m be the event that a specified symbol occurs at least once, and let BmB_m be the event that the first and last symbols are equal.

I.

Show that P(AmBm)=1(m1m)n1P(A_m\mid B_m)=1-\left(\frac{m-1}{m}\right)^{n-1}.

[3]
Write your answer here...
II.

Hence prove that AmA_m and BmB_m are not independent for all integers n2n\ge2 and m>1m>1.

[3]
Write your answer here...
C

No response is required for this part.

[0]
Write your answer here...

0

Question 58
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

An email filtering system classifies incoming messages as newsletter NN, social message SS or fraudulent message FF. The prior probabilities are 0.550.55, 0.350.35 and 0.100.10 respectively. Let LL be the event that the message contains a link, and let UU be the event that it contains an urgent word. The probabilities of LL are 0.300.30, 0.650.65 and 0.900.90 respectively for NN, SS and FF. The probabilities of UU are 0.050.05, 0.120.12 and 0.700.70 respectively. Conditional on the message type, LL and UU are independent.

A branching diagram showing message type, then whether a link is present, then whether an urgent word is present. The diagram emphasizes conditional independence within each message type.
A
I.

Find P(U)P(U).

[3]
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II.

Given that a message contains an urgent word, find the probability that it is fraudulent.

[2]
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B
I.

Given that a message contains both a link and an urgent word, find the probability that it is fraudulent.

[3]
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II.

Determine whether the events LL and UU are independent for a randomly selected message.

[2]
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C

Suppose the probability of an urgent word in a fraudulent message is changed to rr, with all other probabilities unchanged. Determine whether there is a value of rr in [0,1][0,1] for which P(FU)=0.80P(F\mid U)=0.80.

[3]
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0

Question 59
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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A monitoring system records whether a storage tank is in a normal state NN or an anomalous state AA. It is known that P(A)=0.08P(A)=0.08 and P(N)=0.92P(N)=0.92. A sensor gives an alert with probability 0.040.04 when the state is normal and with probability ss when the state is anomalous. Given one alert, the posterior probability of an anomalous state is 0.400.40. Suppose each repeated reading has the same conditional probabilities as the sensor described above, and the readings are conditionally independent given the tank state.

A corrected probability tree for the tank state and alert outcomes. The repeated-reading panel has root branches labelled $N$ and $A$. Conditional on either state, Sensor 1 has alert and no-alert branches followed by Sensor 2 alert and no-alert branches. For $N$, each reading uses probabilities $0.04$ and $0.96$; for $A$, each reading uses probabilities $s$ and $1-s$. The panel explicitly states that the readings are conditionally independent given the tank state, and every branch continues through both readings.
A

Find ss.

[3]
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B

For this part, use s=0.306666s=0.306666\ldots. Two repeated readings are taken from the same tank state.

I.

Given that both readings give an alert, find the probability that the tank is anomalous.

[3]
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II.

Given that exactly one of the two readings gives an alert, find the probability that the tank is anomalous.

[3]
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C

The same sensor is used kk times on the same hidden tank state; the readings are conditionally independent given the state, and all kk readings are alerts.

I.

Write down the posterior probability that the tank is anomalous after kk alerts.

[2]
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II.

Hence show that this posterior probability tends to 11 as kk\to\infty.

[3]
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0

Question 60
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A streaming platform recommends one of three categories of films to a randomly selected user: drama DD, comedy CC or documentary QQ. The probabilities of these categories being recommended are 0.500.50, 0.300.30 and 0.200.20 respectively. Let AA be the event that the user clicks on the recommendation. The click probabilities are 0.120.12, 0.180.18 and 0.090.09 respectively for DD, CC and QQ.

A probability tree with three recommendation categories followed by click or no click. The final part of the diagram is left general with likelihoods $l_1$, $l_2$ and $l_3$.
A
I.

Find P(A)P(A).

[2]
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II.

Given that the user clicks, find the probability that the recommendation was a comedy.

[2]
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B
I.

Given that the user does not click, find the probability that the recommendation was a documentary.

[3]
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II.

Determine whether the event that a user clicks is independent of the event that the recommendation is a comedy.

[2]
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C

More generally, suppose a recommendation has one of three categories B1B_1, B2B_2 and B3B_3 with positive prior probabilities p1p_1, p2p_2 and p3p_3, where p1+p2+p3=1p_1+p_2+p_3=1. Let P(ABi)=liP(A\mid B_i)=l_i, where 0<li<10<l_i<1. Prove that observing AA does not change any of the three prior probabilities if and only if l1=l2=l3l_1=l_2=l_3.

[4]
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