Question 1
A national population is represented as a system with a defined boundary.
State two inputs to the national population.
[2]
Distinguish between an emigrant and an immigrant in relation to this national boundary.
[1]
Question 2
The figure shows a demographic transition model for a population.
Identify the stage in which the population has the highest natural increase rate.
[1]
Explain two reasons why the death rate may fall during this stage.
[2]
Question 3
The coastal country of Arandia records births, deaths and long-term migration at its national boundary. Figure 1 shows demographic data for 2024.
Identify the two inputs to Arandia's population storage.
[1]
Calculate Arandia's crude birth rate in 2024.
[2]
Calculate the natural increase rate as a percentage per year.
[2]
Calculate Arandia's total population change during 2024 and state whether the population increased or decreased.
[2]
Analyse why Arandia's future population cannot be predicted accurately from its 2024 natural increase rate alone.
[3]
Question 4
The demographic data for the fictional country of Bellara are shown in Figure 1.
Demographic indicators for Bellara in 2025.
| Total population / million | Crude birth rate / per 1000 per year | Crude death rate / per 1000 per year | Immigration rate / per 1000 per year | Emigration rate / per 1000 per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.0 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Note: All rates apply over the same year. |
Calculate the natural increase rate as a percentage per year.
[2]
Calculate the total population growth rate, including migration, as a percentage per year.
[2]
Using the rule of 70 and the total growth rate calculated in (b), estimate the population doubling time.
[1]
Explain why the calculated doubling time may not accurately predict Bellara’s future population.
[2]
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Question 5
A population has a crude birth rate of 19 per 1000 people per year and a crude death rate of 9 per 1000 people per year. Assume that its natural increase rate remains constant.
Calculate the natural increase rate as a percentage per year. Show your working.
[2]
Using the rule of 70, calculate the doubling time of the population. Show your working.
[2]
Question 6
The figure shows three conditional projections of global human population based on different future fertility assumptions.
Calculate the range between the high- and low-fertility projections for 2100.
[1]
Outline two reasons why the projections diverge over time.
[2]
Question 7
The figure shows the age–sex composition of two populations. Percentages are of each population's total size.
Describe two differences between the population compositions.
[2]
Outline one likely planning challenge for each population.
[2]
Question 8
A country has 18 million people under 15 years, 52 million people aged 15–64 years and 10 million people over 64 years.
Calculate the dependency ratio and state what the result means. Show your working.
[3]
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Question 9
A demographic agency produced three projections for the population of the fictional country of Bellora. The three scenarios differ only in their assumptions about future total fertility rate.
State Bellora's projected population in 2100 under the medium-fertility scenario.
[1]
Calculate the percentage increase in Bellora's observed population between 2000 and 2025.
[2]
Describe how the range of projected population values changes between 2050 and 2100.
[2]
Explain one reason why the education and family-planning policies in Figure 2(b) may reduce Bellora's fertility rate.
[2]
Evaluate the usefulness of Figure 2(a) for planning Bellora's public services to 2100.
[3]
Question 10
The government of Lydora introduced policies in response to falling fertility and increasing emigration of young adults.
Identify one policy in Figure 3(b) that directly addresses migration.
[1]
Describe the change in Lydora's total fertility rate between 2005 and 2025.
[2]
Distinguish between the pro-natalist policies and the migration policies shown in Figure 3(b).
[2]
Suggest one reason why Lydora's fertility rate remained below two births per woman despite the policies.
[2]
Discuss whether Lydora's policy package is likely to reverse population decline.
[3]
Question 11
Figure 2 shows observed global population and three model projections based on different fertility assumptions.
Calculate the percentage increase in observed global population between 2000 and 2025.
[2]
Describe how the range between the low- and high-fertility projections changes from 2050 to 2100.
[2]
Explain why small differences in assumed fertility produce increasingly different population projections over time.
[2]
State one use of the medium-fertility projection for government planning.
[1]
Question 12
Figure 3 shows the age–sex composition of two fictional countries. Values are percentages of each country’s total population.
Identify which country has the larger proportion of people aged 65 years and over.
[1]
Calculate the proportion of Aruna’s population aged under 15 years.
[1]
Describe two differences between the population compositions of Aruna and Borin.
[2]
Suggest one demographic cause of the shape of each country’s pyramid.
[2]
Suggest one service for which demand is likely to be greater relative to population size in Aruna than in Borin.
[1]
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Question 13
The graph shows changes in crude birth and death rates in the fictional country of Calidia from 1960 to 2025. The table shows selected social indicators for Calidia.
Calculate Calidia’s natural increase rate as a percentage per year in 1980.
[2]
Describe the change in Calidia’s birth rate between 1980 and 2025.
[2]
Using the graph and table, explain two factors that may have contributed to the change identified in (b).
[4]
Question 14
Bangladesh has provided community family-planning services and contraception. Kerala, India, has invested in female literacy, primary healthcare and maternal services.
Explain why the measures used in Bangladesh are an example of direct population management.
[2]
Explain one way in which investment in female literacy may indirectly reduce population growth in Kerala.
[2]
Question 15
The figure represents the doughnut economics model.
Distinguish between social shortfall and ecological overshoot in this model.
[2]
Explain how rapid population growth could contribute to both conditions.
[2]
Question 16
The sequence shows changes in the age–sex structure of a population after its total fertility rate has declined.
Explain why the total population may continue to grow after fertility has declined.
[3]
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Question 17
The figure compares projected changes in the population structures of Nigeria and Germany.
Describe one projected trend in the population structure of each country between 1995 and 2055.
[2]
Explain one factor contributing to the projected trend in each country.
[2]
Question 18
The map shows environmental pressures and migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.
Explain two ways in which the environmental pressures shown may cause migration.
[2]
Explain why this migration should be described as multicausal.
[2]
Question 19
Figures 4(a) and 4(b) show demographic change in the fictional country of Meridia.
State the percentage of Meridia's population aged 65 years and over in 2025.
[1]
Calculate Meridia's natural increase rate as a percentage in 2025.
[2]
Describe two changes in Meridia's population composition between 1995 and 2025.
[2]
Explain why Meridia is likely to be in Stage 3 of the demographic transition model in 2025.
[2]
Evaluate the use of the demographic transition model to predict Meridia's future population.
[3]
Question 20
The age structure of the fictional country of Norvia changed between 2000 and 2030. The government uses age structure to plan schools, employment and pensions.
Age–sex distribution of Norvia, as percentages of total population.
| Age group / years | 2000 males / % | 2000 females / % | 2015 males / % | 2015 females / % | 2030 males / % | 2030 females / % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| – | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| – | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| – | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| – | 3.6 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| – | 3.1 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| – | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| – | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| – | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| – | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| – | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| – | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| – | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 5.7 |
Calculate Norvia's age-dependency ratio in 2030.
[2]
Calculate the approximate doubling time for Norvia's population using its projected 2030 growth rate.
[2]
Explain why Norvia's population is projected to continue growing even though its total fertility rate is declining.
[2]
Suggest one economic opportunity associated with the change in Norvia's age structure.
[1]
Analyse the usefulness and limitations of the dependency ratio for planning Norvia's public spending.
[3]
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Question 21
Figure 5 shows the projected age composition of the fictional country of Darsen following a rapid decline in total fertility rate from 4.8 births per woman in 2000 to 2.1 in 2025.
Projected population composition of Darsen, 2000–2050. Values are population in millions; M = male and F = female. Five-year age groups are shown with aggregate age categories for comparison.
| Age group / years | 2000 M / million | 2000 F / million | 2025 M / million | 2025 F / million | 2050 M / million | 2050 F / million |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| – | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| – | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| – | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| – | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| – | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| – | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| – | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| – | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| – | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| – | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| – | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | |
| Under | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| – | 10.0 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | |
| All ages | 17.0 | 17.0 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 27.0 | 28.0 |
Calculate Darsen’s dependency ratio in 2000.
[2]
Calculate Darsen’s projected dependency ratio in 2050.
[2]
Explain why Darsen’s total population is projected to continue growing between 2025 and 2050 despite fertility reaching 2.1 births per woman.
[3]
State one limitation of using the dependency ratio as a measure of economic dependency.
[1]
Question 22
Secondary data for 20 countries are plotted to test the hypothesis: “Countries with higher female secondary-school enrolment tend to have lower total fertility rates.”
Interpret the relationship shown in the scatter graph.
[1]
Identify a suitable statistical test for this relationship.
[1]
Outline two reasons why the graph does not demonstrate that female education causes lower fertility.
[2]
Question 23
The rapidly growing metropolitan region of San Cordel is attempting to meet social needs without exceeding ecological limits.
Social foundation and ecological ceiling indicators for San Cordel in 2010 and 2025.
| Group | Indicator | 2010 | 2025 | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social foundation | Population | 3.0 | 4.5 | million people |
| Households with safe sanitation | 68 | 82 | % | |
| Residents in informal housing | 18 | 24 | % | |
| Ecological ceiling | Freshwater withdrawal | 420 | 690 | million per year |
| Renewable freshwater supply | 600 | 600 | million per year | |
| Greenhouse-gas emissions | 9.0 | 13.5 | million tonnes per year |
Calculate the percentage increase in San Cordel's population between 2010 and 2025.
[2]
Determine the freshwater deficit or surplus in 2025.
[2]
Explain one way in which San Cordel moved closer to the social foundation and one way in which it moved further beyond the ecological ceiling.
[2]
Suggest one reason why population size alone cannot explain San Cordel's environmental pressure.
[1]
Evaluate whether San Cordel's development between 2010 and 2025 moved the region toward a safe and just operating space.
[3]
Question 24
Figures 7(a) and 7(b) compare demographic change in Kintaba and Ostmark, two countries at different stages of the demographic transition model.
Population shares by broad age group in Kintaba and Ostmark, 1995–2055.
| Country | Year | Under 15 / % | Aged 15 to 64 / % | Aged 65 and over / % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kintaba | 1995 | 45 | 52 | 3 |
| Kintaba | 2025 | 39 | 57 | 4 |
| Kintaba | 2055 | 29 | 65 | 6 |
| Ostmark | 1995 | 17 | 68 | 15 |
| Ostmark | 2025 | 14 | 64 | 22 |
| Ostmark | 2055 | 13 | 56 | 31 |
Identify the country with the larger projected proportion of people aged 65 years and over in 2055.
[1]
Calculate the projected change in the working-age share of Kintaba between 1995 and 2055.
[2]
Explain one social factor contributing to Kintaba's changing population structure.
[2]
Explain how migration affects Ostmark's population trend.
[2]
Compare and contrast the demographic challenges likely to be faced by Kintaba and Ostmark by 2055.
[3]
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Question 25
Figure 6(a) shows a medium global population projection. Figure 6(b) compares population and ecological resource demand for four fictional regions in 2024.
Calculate the projected percentage increase in global population between 2024 and the peak in 2085.
[2]
Using Figure 6(b), identify the region with the greatest disparity between its share of ecological resource demand and its share of population, and calculate this disparity.
[2]
Analyse how the two figures demonstrate that population size alone does not determine stress on Earth’s systems.
[3]
State one reason why the uncertainty band in Figure 6(a) widens over time.
[1]
Question 26
Figure 7 compares past, present and projected population structures for two fictional countries at different stages of the demographic transition model.
Population structures of Senara and Tovan, 1995–2055. Each entry gives male / female as a percentage of total population; 2055 values are projected.
| Age group / years | Senara 1995: (percentage of total) | Senara 2025: (percentage of total) | Senara 2055 projected: (percentage of total) | Tovan 1995: (percentage of total) | Tovan 2025: (percentage of total) | Tovan 2055 projected: (percentage of total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Identify the country that was most consistent with Stage 2 of the demographic transition model in 1995.
[1]
Calculate the change in the proportion of Tovan’s population aged 65 years and over between 1995 and 2055.
[1]
Analyse two demographic trends shown for Senara between 1995 and 2055.
[4]
Suggest one reason why Tovan’s population may not decline despite its narrow pyramid base.
[1]
State one limitation of using the demographic transition model to predict the future structures shown.
[1]
Question 27
The fictional Lower Varin Delta is a densely populated agricultural region. Figure 8(a) shows environmental change and migration routes. Figure 8(b) shows selected data for three districts.
Environmental and demographic indicators for Lower Varin Delta districts, 2010–2025.
| District | Land affected by salinity in 2025 / % | Decline in mean rice yield, 2010–2025 / % | Households displaced by 2022 flood | Net out-migration, 2010–2025 / % of 2010 population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 62 | 38 | 18 000 | 21 |
| Central | 29 | 17 | 11 000 | 9 |
| Upper | 6 | 4 | 3 000 | -4 |
Identify the district with the greatest decline in mean rice yield.
[1]
Calculate the difference in net out-migration between Coast and Central districts.
[1]
Using both figures, explain how slow-onset environmental change may have contributed to migration from Coast district.
[3]
Distinguish between the likely migration responses to the 2022 flood and to long-term saline intrusion.
[2]
Suggest one reason why environmental change alone may not explain the migration pattern shown.
[1]
Question 28
Outline the changes in crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase as a population moves from Stage 2 to Stage 4 of the demographic transition model.
[4]
Explain how changes in mortality and fertility during the demographic transition affect the shape of age–sex pyramids.
[7]
Using named examples, evaluate the demographic transition model as a means of explaining and predicting population change.
[9]
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Question 29
Distinguish between direct and indirect management of human population growth.
[4]
Explain how social, economic and health policies may indirectly reduce the rate of population growth.
[7]
Using named examples, evaluate the effectiveness and acceptability of policies used to manage human population growth.
[9]
Question 30
Outline four demographic factors used to construct a national population projection.
[4]
Explain why low-, medium- and high-fertility population projections diverge increasingly over time.
[7]
To what extent can future human population growth be predicted accurately?
[9]
Question 31
The low-lying Salira estuary supports rice farming and fishing. Environmental change has contributed to migration toward the inland city of Daro, although household surveys indicate that migration decisions are multicausal.
Figure 8(b): changes in environmental conditions, rice yield and permanent out-migration at Village B, Salira estuary.
| Year | Dry-season salinity / | Rice yield / | Permanent out-migration / people per 1000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 3 | 4.2 | 7 |
| 2015 | 5 | 3.8 | 10 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3.1 | 16 |
| 2025 | 12 | 2.4 | 23 |
Calculate the percentage decrease in rice yield at Village B between 2010 and 2025.
[2]
Describe the relationship between salinity, rice yield and permanent out-migration shown in Figure 8(b).
[2]
Distinguish between a slow-onset and a sudden-onset environmental driver of migration in the Salira estuary.
[2]
Suggest why some environmentally affected households may remain in the Salira estuary rather than migrate.
[1]
Evaluate the hypothesis that environmental change is the main cause of migration from the Salira estuary.
[3]
Question 32
Outline the concepts of biocapacity disparity and the safe and just operating space in the doughnut economics model.
[4]
Explain how population growth may simultaneously increase social shortfall and ecological overshoot.
[7]
Evaluate the claim that limiting population growth is the most effective way to reduce human pressure on Earth’s systems.
[9]
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Question 33
Outline how age–sex structure influences dependency ratio and population momentum.
[4]
Explain how contrasting age structures may create different demographic and economic opportunities in Nigeria and Germany.
[7]
Using named examples of countries at different stages of the demographic transition, evaluate strategies for responding to high age dependency.
[9]
Question 34
Distinguish between sudden-onset and slow-onset environmental drivers of migration.
[4]
Explain why movement from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, may be described as both environmentally influenced and multicausal.
[7]
Using named examples, to what extent is climate change the principal cause of environmental migration?
[9]
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