Solaro (SO) installs home battery storage systems for households with solar panels. SO’s sales team has recorded monthly enquiries and completed installations for four years. Sales usually increase after government announcements about energy prices and in months when electricity bills are sent to households. SO uses moving averages to smooth monthly sales data and to forecast installation bookings.

SO is considering whether to base its next marketing plan mainly on these sales forecasts. The marketing director wants to use the forecast to decide the timing of online advertising, promotional discounts and recruitment of temporary installation teams. The managing director is concerned that future sales may depend more on external factors than past sales: a possible change in government subsidies, new safety regulations, changes in interest rates and negative media coverage of battery fires in another country.

FreshLoop (FL) delivers weekly boxes of locally grown vegetables to households in one large city. FL is considering expanding into a second city. The marketing director has prepared a forecast for the first year in the new city by using sales patterns from the existing city. She believes the forecast should guide FL’s pricing, promotion and staffing decisions.

FL’s existing city has high brand awareness and many repeat customers. The second city has a younger population, more apartment living and two established competitors offering similar delivery services. FL has not previously traded there.

Selected data from FL’s existing city:

Estimated additional fixed marketing cost for the new city in year 1: USD 160000.

BeanRoot (BR) manufactures plant-based ready-to-drink coffee in recyclable cartons. BR sells mainly through independent cafes and university shops. Sales have grown over the last three years, but the pattern is uneven: demand rises strongly at the start of university terms and falls during vacation periods. BR’s marketing manager has prepared a quarterly sales forecast using time series analysis and extrapolation of the trend. The forecast suggests that BR could justify investing in a second production line and signing a two-year supply contract with a national supermarket chain.

However, BR’s operations director is cautious. A recent increase in milk-alternative prices may raise BR’s selling price, and two large competitors have launched similar products. BR also had one unusually successful quarter after a celebrity posted about its products on social media. The finance director argues that, despite these uncertainties, a sales forecast is needed to prepare cash flow forecasts, plan inventory and coordinate marketing with production.

DriftWear (DW) manufactures waterproof jackets made from recycled materials. DW sells mainly through outdoor retailers. The operations director wants to invest in an automated cutting machine that would increase annual capacity by 40%. The investment would require a long-term loan and would only be profitable if sales continue to grow.

DW’s marketing manager has used past sales data to prepare a sales forecast. She argues that sales forecasting will reduce uncertainty before the investment decision is made. However, a large sportswear brand has recently launched a lower-priced recycled jacket range.

Selected sales data for DW:

AeroCharge (AC) sells portable phone chargers at music festivals and through its website. Demand is highly seasonal because most festival sales occur between May and August. AC’s marketing manager has used time series analysis to forecast sales for the next festival season. She recommends increasing inventory and hiring temporary sales staff.

The operations manager is concerned that the forecast may be unreliable. Several major festivals are moving to cashless payment systems that rent chargers to customers on-site. AC is also planning a new premium charger with a higher selling price but limited past sales data.

Selected sales information for AC:

Expected temporary staffing cost for Summer 2026: USD 38000.

ReRead Books (RRB) – a social enterprise

Read the resources and answer the questions that follow.

Resource 1 — Background

RRB collects donated textbooks, refurbishes them and sells low-cost exam revision packs to schools. Surpluses fund free reading clubs for children in low-income areas. RRB’s founder, Nia, stated: “If we forecast demand badly, either pupils miss out because we have no packs left, or cash is tied up in books no school wants.” RRB wants to open three temporary pop-up stalls near examination centres next year.

Resource 2 — Forecast and actual sales volume of revision packs in 2025

Resource 3 — Operational information

RRB’s current workshop capacity is 4500 packs per quarter without overtime, or 6500 packs per quarter with overtime and extra volunteer shifts. Unsold packs become less useful when examination syllabuses change. Some donated books arrive in poor condition and cannot be used.

Resource 4 — Marketing information

RRB has 82 000 social-media followers, but posts reach between 8% and 35% of followers depending on the platform algorithm. Two schools have asked RRB to guarantee minimum stock levels before signing supply agreements.

WarmWatts (WW) – a social enterprise

Read the resources and answer the questions that follow.

Resource 1 — Background

WW refurbishes used smart thermostats and installs them at a discount in homes affected by fuel poverty. Full-price online sales to environmentally conscious customers help finance the discounted installations. WW’s mission statement is: “Lower energy bills, less waste and warmer homes.” WW is considering a major winter campaign and may lease a larger workshop for two years.

Resource 2 — Forecast and actual sales volume of refurbished thermostats

Resource 3 — Finance and operations

WW has cash reserves equal to two months of expenses. The lease on the larger workshop would increase fixed costs but allow WW to refurbish 800 more thermostats per quarter. Components are imported with a 12-week lead time.

Resource 4 — Market information

WW has 36 000 email subscribers and partnerships with four local councils. A new low-priced competitor has entered the online market. WW’s operations manager said: “Our past sales figures tell us a lot, but energy prices, weather and government grants can change demand very quickly.”

Koru Kidswear (KK) designs and sells premium school backpacks through its website and selected department stores. KK has experienced unpredictable sales. Some demand is seasonal because parents buy backpacks before the school year begins, but online sales also change quickly after influencer reviews and competitor promotions. KK has only recently entered overseas markets, where the school year starts at different times.

KK’s directors are considering three actions for the next 12 months:

• use past sales data and seasonal variation to forecast demand by month;
• increase inventory before the expected peak selling months;
• reduce spending on qualitative market research to save cash.

The operations manager supports this plan, arguing that stock shortages last year damaged KK’s reputation. The marketing manager opposes reducing market research, arguing that overseas customers may have different preferences and that competitor promotions can quickly change demand. KK’s finance manager says the business cannot afford both high inventory levels and extensive market research unless the forecast is reliable.

FoodBridge Kitchen (FBK) – a social enterprise

Read the resources and answer the questions that follow.

Resource 1 — Background

FBK turns surplus food from supermarkets into frozen meals and employs people who have been long-term unemployed. It sells meals through community shops and a small subscription service. Surpluses are reinvested in free cookery training. FBK is considering launching a new range of ready-to-cook family meal kits in two nearby cities.

Resource 2 — Trial subscription data for frozen meals

Resource 3 — Data quality and operations

FBK has only ten months of reliable subscription data. Until March, its sales system did not separate paid trial boxes from free sample boxes. The supply of surplus vegetables changes weekly. Meal kits would require new packaging, recipe cards and more accurate demand planning than frozen meals.

Resource 4 — Marketing information

A social-media video about FBK received 150 000 views, but FBK does not know how many viewers became paying customers. A charity partner said: “Expansion could create jobs, but only if FBK avoids wasting food and cash on products customers do not buy.”