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Distributions

Practice exam-style IB Math AI questions for Distributions, aligned with the syllabus and grouped by topic.

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Question 1
SL • Paper 1
Easy
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SL • Paper 1
Easy
Calculator Permitted

A discrete random variable XX has possible values 00, 11, 22 and 33. Its probability distribution is given by P(X=0)=kP(X=0)=k, P(X=1)=2kP(X=1)=2k, P(X=2)=0.25P(X=2)=0.25 and P(X=3)=0.15P(X=3)=0.15.

A

the value of kk.

[2]
B

E(X)E(X).

[2]
C

A player's reward, in euros, is 4X4X. the entry fee that makes the player's expected net gain equal to zero.

[1]
Question 2
SL • Paper 1
Easy
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Easy
Calculator Permitted

The volume of juice placed in a bottle is modelled by a normal distribution with mean 500 mL500\ \text{mL} and standard deviation 4 mL4\ \text{mL}.

A

Using the empirical rule, an interval that contains approximately 95%95\% of bottle volumes.

[2]
B

the probability that a bottle contains less than 494 mL494\ \text{mL}.

[2]
C

why P(X<494)=P(X≤494)P(X<494)=P(X\leq494) for this model.

[1]
Question 3
HL • Paper 1
Easy
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 1
Easy
Calculator Permitted

A random variable XX has E(X)=12E(X)=12 and Var⁡(X)=5\operatorname{Var}(X)=5. A second random variable is defined by Y=3−2XY=3-2X.

A

E(Y)E(Y).

[2]
B

Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(Y).

[2]
C

the standard deviation of YY.

[1]
Question 4
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A seed has probability 0.350.35 of germinating. A gardener plants 1818 seeds. The seeds germinate independently, and XX is the number that germinate.

A

the distribution of XX.

[1]
B

the probability that exactly 77 seeds germinate.

[2]
C

the mean and the variance of XX.

[2]

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Question 5
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The masses of loaves produced by a bakery are normally distributed with mean 7272 grams and standard deviation 88 grams. The mass of a randomly selected loaf is denoted by XX.

A

P(65<X<82)P(65<X<82).

[2]
B

The heaviest 12%12\% of loaves have mass greater than mm grams. mm.

[2]
C

In one day, 250250 loaves are produced. the number with mass greater than 9090 grams.

[2]
Question 6
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A player pays an entry fee of 33 euros to play a game. The player receives no prize with probability 0.700.70, receives 44 euros with probability 0.250.25, and receives a jackpot with probability 0.050.05.

A

When the jackpot is 3030 euros, the player's expected net gain from one game.

[2]
B

The game is played 600600 times with the jackpot fixed at 3030 euros. the organizer's expected profit.

[2]
C

the jackpot value that would make the game fair to the player.

[2]
Question 7
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A factory produces electronic components. Each component has probability 0.080.08 of being defective, independently of all other components. A batch contains 4040 components, and XX is the number of defective components in a batch.

A

the probability that a batch contains at least one defective component.

[2]
B

the probability that exactly 33 components are defective.

[2]
C

the expected total number of defective components in 2525 such batches.

[1]
Question 8
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A random sample of six measurements is 1212, 1515, 1515, 1818, 2020, 2222.

A

the unbiased of the population mean.

[2]
B

the variance of these measurements using divisor nn.

[1]
C

the unbiased of the population variance.

[2]

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Question 9
HL • Paper 1
Medium
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HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

Calls arrive at a help desk at a mean rate of 7.27.2 calls per hour. The number of calls is modelled by a Poisson distribution.

A

the mean number of calls in a 2020-minute period.

[1]
B

the probability of exactly 33 calls in a 2020-minute period.

[2]
C

the probability of at least 22 calls in a 2020-minute period.

[2]
D

two assumptions required for the Poisson model to be appropriate.

[2]
Question 10
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The number of customers who purchase a warranty during one day is modelled by X∼B(24,p)X\sim B(24,p). It is known that E(X)=9.6E(X)=9.6.

A

the value of pp.

[2]
B

Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(X).

[1]
C

the probability that more than 1212 customers purchase a warranty.

[2]
Question 11
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The time XX, in minutes, taken by a runner to complete a route is normally distributed. The 2020th percentile is 4242 minutes and the 8080th percentile is 5858 minutes.

A

the mean completion time.

[1]
B

the standard deviation of the completion time.

[2]
C

the probability that a runner takes more than 6565 minutes.

[2]
Question 12
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The random variables XX and YY represent the numbers of two types of item in a shipment. They are independent, with E(X)=18E(X)=18, Var⁡(X)=12\operatorname{Var}(X)=12, E(Y)=10E(Y)=10 and Var⁡(Y)=6\operatorname{Var}(Y)=6. The shipment cost is modelled by C=4X+7Y+50C=4X+7Y+50.

A

E(C)E(C).

[2]
B

the standard deviation of CC.

[2]
C

why the independence of XX and YY is needed in part (b), but not in part (a).

[1]

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Question 13
HL • Paper 1
Medium
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HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The numbers of faults detected in one hour by two independent monitoring systems are represented by X∼Po⁡(2.8)X\sim\operatorname{Po}(2.8) and Y∼Po⁡(1.6)Y\sim\operatorname{Po}(1.6).

A

the distribution of X+YX+Y.

[1]
B

the probability that at most 33 faults are detected in total.

[2]
C

E(X−Y)E(X-Y) and Var⁡(X−Y)\operatorname{Var}(X-Y).

[2]
Question 14
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A communications company studies two situations. In situation A, each of 5050 independently transmitted messages has probability 0.040.04 of containing an error. In situation B, independent network outages occur at a uniform mean rate of 2.12.1 per week.

A

an appropriate probability distribution for the number of messages containing an error in situation A. your answer.

[2]
B

the probability that at least 33 messages contain an error in situation A.

[2]
C

an appropriate probability distribution for the weekly number of outages in situation B, and the probability of no outages in a week.

[2]
Question 15
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 1
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The number of customers arriving at a kiosk in one hour is modelled by X∼Po⁡(λ)X\sim\operatorname{Po}(\lambda). Assume that customers arrive according to a homogeneous Poisson process with a constant rate. The probability that no customers arrive in one hour is 0.050.05.

A

the value of λ\lambda.

[2]
B

Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(X).

[1]
C

the probability that at least one customer arrives during a 3030-minute period.

[2]
Question 16
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A quality score is defined by Y=100−5XY=100-5X, where X∼B(20,0.30)X\sim B(20,0.30).

A

E(Y)E(Y).

[2]
B

Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(Y).

[2]
C

P(Y<50)P(Y<50).

[2]

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Question 17
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

At a school fair, the number of tokens won in a game is represented by the discrete random variable XX. Its probability distribution is shown in the table.

xx

P(X=x)P(X=x)

0

kk

2

2k2k

5

0.30

9

0.20

A
I.

the value of kk.

[2]
II.

E(X)E(X).

[2]
B

The player receives 66 cents for each token won.

I.

Given that each token is worth 66 cents, the entry fee, in cents, that makes the game fair.

[2]
II.

Given that the player wins at least 55 tokens, the probability that the player wins 99 tokens.

[2]
Question 18
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

A wildlife survey estimates that each photograph taken by a motion-sensitive camera has probability 0.280.28 of showing a fox. The photographs are assumed to be independent. Let XX be the number showing a fox among the next 2020 photographs.

A

(a)

I.

the distribution of XX.

[1]
II.

the probability that exactly 66 photographs a fox.

[3]
B

(b)

I.

P(X≥8)P(X\geq8).

[2]
II.

Given that at least 66 photographs a fox, the probability that at least 88 a fox.

[2]
Question 19
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

The operating time TT, in hours, of a rechargeable lamp is normally distributed with mean 4242 hours and standard deviation 5.55.5 hours.

A
I.

the distribution of TT.

[1]
II.

the probability that a randomly selected lamp operates for between 3838 and 4949 hours.

[3]
B
I.

The longest-lasting 10%10\% of lamps operate for more than qq hours. qq.

[2]
II.

A retailer sells 600600 lamps. the number expected to operate for more than 5252 hours.

[2]
Question 20
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Medium
Calculator Permitted

An insurer offers one-year protection for a portable music player. The claim payment CC, in dollars, for one policy has the distribution shown in the table.

Claim payment, CC [$]

Probability, P(C)P(C)

0

0.55

120

0.30

400

0.12

1000

0.03

A
I.

the expected claim payment, E(C)E(C).

[2]
II.

Each policy has an administrative cost of 1818 dollars. the premium that gives the insurer an expected profit of zero.

[2]
B

The insurer charges a premium of 150150 dollars for each policy.

I.

the probability that the claim payment for a policy is at least 400400 dollars.

[1]
II.

The insurer sells 500500 policies. its expected total profit.

[3]

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Question 21
SL • Paper 2
Hard
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SL • Paper 2
Hard
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A commuter uses a bicycle-sharing station on eight mornings. On each morning, the probability that no bicycle is available is pp. Availability on different mornings is independent. The probability that a bicycle is available on all eight mornings is 0.120.12.

A
I.

(1−p)8=0.12(1-p)^8=0.12.

[2]
II.

pp.

[2]
B

For the next 3030 mornings, assume that the probability remains pp and that mornings are independent. Let YY be the number of mornings on which no bicycle is available. Use p=0.233p=0.233 if you did not obtain an answer to part (a)(ii).

I.

E(Y)E(Y) and Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(Y).

[2]
II.

the probability that no bicycle is available on at least 1010 mornings.

[2]
Question 22
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

The daily energy use XX, in kilowatt-hours, of a particular household is normally distributed. It is known that P(X<120)=0.10P(X<120)=0.10 and P(X<168)=0.90P(X<168)=0.90.

A
I.

the mean μ\mu of XX.

[2]
II.

the standard deviation σ\sigma.

[2]
B

Use X∼N(144,18.72)X\sim N(144,18.7^2) if you did not obtain answers to part (a).

I.

P(135<X<160)P(135<X<160).

[2]
II.

the value cc such that P(X>c)=0.05P(X>c)=0.05.

[2]
Question 23
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A basketball player makes a free throw with probability 0.600.60. The outcomes of successive free throws are independent. During a training exercise, the player takes 1515 free throws. Let XX be the number made.

A
I.

E(X)E(X) and Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(X).

[2]
II.

the probability that the player makes exactly 1010 free throws.

[2]
B
I.

the probability that the player makes at least 1010 free throws.

[2]
II.

Given that the player makes at least 1010 free throws, the probability that exactly 1010 are made.

[2]
Question 24
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
SL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

The lifetime LL, in days, of a water-purification cartridge is normally distributed with mean 860860 days and standard deviation 4545 days.

A
I.

the probability that a cartridge lasts between 800800 and 920920 days.

[2]
II.

The shortest-lasting 2%2\% of cartridges are classified as premature failures. the greatest lifetime classified as a premature failure.

[2]
B

Assume that cartridge lifetimes are independent.

I.

A shipment contains 12001200 cartridges. the expected number of premature failures.

[2]
II.

the probability that at least one of 1010 cartridges selected independently from the population is a premature failure.

[2]

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Question 25
HL • Paper 2
Hard
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HL • Paper 2
Hard
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The number of maintenance tasks completed by a technician during one session is represented by the random variable XX with the distribution shown in the table.

XX

P(X)P(X)

Y=80−6XY=80-6X

1

0.20

74

2

0.50

68

4

0.30

56

A
I.

E(X)E(X).

[2]
II.

Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(X).

[2]
B

Let Y=80−6XY=80-6X be the performance index.

I.

E(Y)E(Y) and Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(Y).

[2]
II.

P(Y≤62)P(Y\leq62).

[2]
Question 26
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

Two independent random variables XX and YY represent the masses, in kilograms, of two materials used in a manufacturing process. It is known that E(X)=2.4E(X)=2.4, Var⁡(X)=0.09\operatorname{Var}(X)=0.09, E(Y)=1.7E(Y)=1.7 and Var⁡(Y)=0.04\operatorname{Var}(Y)=0.04. The production cost, in dollars, is modelled by C=12X+8Y+5C=12X+8Y+5, and a balance index is defined by D=3X−2YD=3X-2Y.

A

The production cost, in dollars, is modelled by C=12X+8Y+5C=12X+8Y+5.

I.

E(C)E(C).

[2]
II.

the standard deviation of CC.

[2]
B

A balance index is defined by D=3X−2YD=3X-2Y.

I.

E(D)E(D) and Var⁡(D)\operatorname{Var}(D).

[3]
II.

why independence is required when finding Var⁡(D)\operatorname{Var}(D) but not when finding E(D)E(D).

[1]
Question 27
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A random sample of travel times, in minutes, is summarized in the frequency table.

Travel time [min]

Frequency

10

2

12

3

15

4

18

1

A
I.

the unbiased of the population mean.

[2]
II.

the variance of the sample using divisor nn.

[3]
B

A transformed travel-time score is defined by Y=2X+5Y=2X+5.

I.

the unbiased of the population variance of XX.

[2]
II.

Let Y=2X+5Y=2X+5, where XX and YY are measured in minutes. unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of YY.

[2]
Question 28
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

Small cracks along a walking trail occur independently at a uniform mean rate of 4.84.8 cracks per 33 kilometres. Let XX be the number of cracks along a randomly selected 55 kilometre section.

A
AI.

the distribution of XX, including its parameter.

[2]
AII.

the probability that exactly 66 cracks occur.

[2]
B
BI.

the probability that at most 44 cracks occur.

[2]
BII.

Given that more than 44 cracks occur, the probability that exactly 66 occur.

[2]
BIII.

one feature of the context that would make the Poisson model inappropriate.

[1]

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Question 29
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
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At a school fair, a game produces a score XX with the probability distribution shown. The player receives 6X6X credits. Different plays are independent.

Score x

P(X=x)

0

k

1

2k

2

3k

3

1-6k

A

the value of kk.

[2]
B
I.

E(X)E(X) and operatornameVar(X) operatorname{Var}(X).

[2]
II.

the entry fee that makes the expected net gain to a player equal to zero. If you did not obtain E(X)=1.50E(X)=1.50, use this value.

[2]
C

The game is played independently 200200 times using the fair entry fee. the standard deviation of the organizer's total profit.

[2]
Question 30
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A laboratory independently tests 3030 water samples. Each sample has probability 0.080.08 of containing a pollutant above a specified limit. Let XX be the number of samples above the limit.

A

the distribution of XX, including its parameters.

[2]
B
I.

the probability that at least four samples are above the limit.

[2]
II.

the mean and variance of XX.

[2]
C

A researcher wants the probability that at least one selected sample is above the limit to be no greater than 0.50.5. the greatest possible number of independently selected samples.

[2]
Question 31
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

The time XX, in minutes, taken by an automated device to complete a cycle is normally distributed. Records P(X<18.4)=0.10P(X<18.4)=0.10 and P(X>21.6)=0.10P(X>21.6)=0.10.

A

the mean cycle time.

[2]
B
I.

the standard deviation of the cycle time.

[2]
II.

A cost index is defined by C=3X+5C=3X+5. E(C)E(C) and Var⁡(C)\operatorname{Var}(C). If you did not obtain σ=1.25\sigma=1.25, use this value.

[2]
C

The slowest 2% of cycles are investigated. the minimum cycle time that results in an investigation.

[2]
Question 32
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A delivery company records the daily numbers XX and YY of two types of special delivery. The variables are independent, with E(X)=2.5E(X)=2.5, Var⁡(X)=2.5\operatorname{Var}(X)=2.5, E(Y)=3E(Y)=3 and Var⁡(Y)=2.55\operatorname{Var}(Y)=2.55. Daily operating cost is modelled by C=120+8X+3YC=120+8X+3Y.

A

the expected daily operating cost.

[2]
B
I.

the standard deviation of CC.

[2]
II.

A constant subsidy ss is added to the cost model, with the subsidized cost defined as Cs=C+sC_s=C+s. ss so that the expected subsidized cost is 140140 monetary units, and its effect on the variance.

[2]
C

The coefficient of XX is replaced by a>0a>0. aa so that the contributions of aXaX and 3Y3Y to the variance are equal.

[2]

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Question 33
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
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A random sample records the number of maintenance tasks completed by workers during one shift.

Tasks completed

Frequency

2

3

4

5

6

4

8

2

A

an unbiased of the population mean.

[2]
B
I.

the variance using divisor nn.

[2]
II.

the unbiased of the population variance.

[2]
C

A productivity index is defined by Y=10X+20Y=10X+20. unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of YY.

[2]
Question 34
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

An engineering team studies three processes: errors among 6060 independent transmissions, each with probability 0.030.03 of error; cracks occurring independently along cable at a uniform mean rate of 0.40.4 per metre; and the mass of a component, which is continuous and approximately symmetric with mean 1010 grams and standard deviation 0.30.3 grams.

A

Select an appropriate distribution for each process, including all parameters.

[2]
B
I.

the probability of at least three transmission errors.

[2]
II.

the probability of no cracks along a five-metre cable.

[2]
C

The transmission system automatically repeats a message after an error, making the next transmission more likely to fail. why the binomial model would no longer be appropriate.

[2]
Question 35
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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For each policy sold, an insurer pays a claim XX of 00, 500500 or 20002000 monetary units with probabilities 0.920.92, 0.070.07 and 0.010.01, respectively. The insurer also has an administration cost of 1212 monetary units per policy.

Component

Value [MU]

Probability

Claim X=0X=0

0

0.92

Claim X=500X=500

500

0.07

Claim X=2000X=2000

2000

0.01

Administration cost per policy

12

—

A

the expected claim payment.

[2]
B
I.

the premium required for an expected profit of 88 monetary units per policy.

[2]
II.

the variance of the insurer's profit from one policy.

[2]
C

The insurer sells 400400 policies. Assuming independent claims, the expected total profit and its standard deviation.

[2]
Question 36
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A temperature sensor reports a reading XX in arbitrary units. The readings are normally distributed with mean 5252 and standard deviation 44. The calibrated temperature is defined by Y=aX+bY=aX+b. Two calibration requirements are E(Y)=20E(Y)=20 and sd⁡(Y)=3\operatorname{sd}(Y)=3.

A

the positive value of aa.

[2]
B
I.

bb.

[2]
II.

P(17<Y<24)P(17<Y<24). If you did not obtain the calibration, use Y∼N(20,32)Y\sim N(20,3^2).

[2]
C

A second calibration uses the negative value of aa satisfying the standard-deviation requirement. its value of bb and how the ordering of readings changes.

[2]

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Question 37
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
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A random sample of five soil-moisture readings, expressed as percentages, is 1818, 2121, 2323, 2424 and 2929. Two estimators of population variance are considered: V1=sn2V_1=s_n^2 and V2=sn−12V_2=s_{n-1}^2.

A

the sample mean.

[2]
B
I.

V1V_1.

[2]
II.

V2V_2.

[2]
C

Over repeated random samples, the bias of V1V_1 and V2V_2 as estimators of the population variance.

[2]
Question 38
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

An online challenge consists of 2020 independent questions. The probability of answering any question correctly is 0.350.35. Let XX be the number answered correctly. A performance score is defined by S=5X−20S=5X-20.

A

E(X)E(X) and operatornameVar(X) operatorname{Var}(X).

[2]
B
I.

E(S)E(S) and operatornameVar(S) operatorname{Var}(S).

[2]
II.

the probability that the performance score is at least 3030.

[2]
C

A revised score is T=aX+bT=aX+b, where one additional correct answer must increase the score by 88 points and the expected score must be 5050. aa and bb.

[2]
Question 39
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Hard
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Two independent inspection systems detect different types of flaw in a roll of fabric. The roll is 250250 metres long. In each 100100 metres, system A detects a mean of 1.81.8 flaws and system B detects a mean of 0.90.9 flaws. Both counts are modelled by Poisson distributions with uniform rates.

A

A roll is 250250 metres long. Let XX and YY be the numbers detected by systems A and B, respectively.

I.

the distributions of XX and YY.

[2]
II.

the distribution of the total number T=X+YT=X+Y of detected flaws.

[2]
III.

E(T)E(T).

[1]
B
I.

the probability that at most 55 flaws are detected in total.

[2]
II.

Given that exactly one flaw is detected in total, the probability that it is detected by system A.

[2]
Question 40
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Hard
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A research centre considers three random variables.

  • AA is the number of faulty sensors among 6060 independently tested sensors, each with probability 0.030.03 of being faulty.
  • BB is the number of algae cells observed in a randomly selected area of 3.5 mm23.5\ \text{mm}^2. Cells occur independently at a uniform mean rate of 1.41.4 cells per mm2\text{mm}^2.
  • CC is the measured length of an adult leaf from a species whose lengths are continuous and approximately symmetric about a mean of 84 mm84\ \text{mm} with standard deviation 6 mm6\ \text{mm}.
A
I.

Select an appropriate distribution for each of AA, BB and CC, including all parameters.

[3]
II.

why a Poisson distribution is more appropriate for BB than a binomial distribution.

[2]
B
I.

P(A≥2)P(A\geq2).

[2]
II.

the probability that exactly 55 algae cells are observed.

[2]

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Question 41
HL • Paper 2
Hard
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HL • Paper 2
Hard
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Requests arrive at an online server independently and at a uniform mean rate. The number of requests from source A in any interval is modelled by a Poisson distribution. The probability of receiving no requests from source A during a two-minute interval is 0.180.18.

A
I.

the mean number of requests from source A in two minutes.

[2]
II.

the mean number of requests from source A in five minutes.

[2]
B

Requests from source B are modelled by a Poisson distribution independent of source A, with a mean of 1.21.2 requests per five minutes. Use a mean of 4.294.29 for source A if you did not obtain an answer to part (a)(ii).

I.

the distribution of the total number TT of requests from both sources during five minutes.

[2]
II.

the probability that at least 77 requests arrive in total.

[2]
III.

Given that exactly one request arrives, the probability that it is from source A.

[1]
Question 42
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 2
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A delivery company records two independent random variables each day. The number XX of priority deliveries completed satisfies X∼B(25,0.40)X\sim B(25,0.40). The number YY of failed delivery attempts satisfies Y∼Po⁡(3.2)Y\sim\operatorname{Po}(3.2).

A

(a)

I.

E(X)E(X), Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(X), E(Y)E(Y) and Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(Y).

[2]
II.

A daily performance score is defined by S=2X−3Y+10S=2X-3Y+10. E(S)E(S).

[2]
B

(b)

I.

Var⁡(S)\operatorname{Var}(S) and the standard deviation of SS.

[3]
II.

A bonus is awarded when 2X+5≥312X+5\geq31. the probability that a bonus is awarded.

[2]
Question 43
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted
HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

During a 3030-minute period, bicycles arrive independently at a repair station from two routes. The numbers arriving from routes A and B are modelled by independent Poisson distributions with means 1.81.8 and 2.72.7, respectively.

A

the distribution of the total number TT of bicycles arriving in 3030 minutes.

[2]
B
I.

the probability that at least six bicycles arrive in 3030 minutes.

[2]
II.

For a two-hour period, assume that these arrival rates continue uniformly over the four successive 30-minute intervals. Let T2T_2 be the total number of bicycles arriving in two hours. the smallest capacity cc such that P(T2≤c)≥0.95P(T_2\leq c)\geq0.95.

[2]
C

Arrival rates are much higher immediately after nearby sporting events. why the two-hour capacity calculation may then be unreliable.

[2]
Question 44
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A theatre has 120120 seats. Each ticket holder independently fails to attend with probability 0.080.08. If nn tickets are sold, let XX be the number of ticket holders who do not attend.

A

For n=128n=128, the distribution of XX and the condition on XX for at least one customer to be turned away.

[2]
B
I.

the probability that at least one customer is turned away when 128128 tickets are sold.

[2]
II.

the expected number of ticket holders who attend when 128128 tickets are sold.

[2]
C

The theatre requires the probability of turning away a customer to be no greater than 0.200.20. Use technology to the greatest number of tickets it may sell.

[2]

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Question 45
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
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Minor and major alerts arrive independently at a control centre. In one hour, the numbers of minor and major alerts are modelled by X∼Po⁡(3.2)X\sim\operatorname{Po}(3.2) and Y∼Po⁡(1.3)Y\sim\operatorname{Po}(1.3), respectively. A minor alert requires 22 minutes of work and a major alert requires 77 minutes.

A

the distribution of the total number N=X+YN=X+Y of alerts in one hour.

[2]
B
I.

the probability of exactly five alerts in an hour.

[2]
II.

Let W=2X+7YW=2X+7Y be the total number of minutes of work generated in an hour. E(W)E(W) and Var⁡(W)\operatorname{Var}(W).

[2]
C

why WW is not itself a Poisson random variable, even though XX and YY are independent Poisson variables.

[2]
Question 46
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
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The diameters XX, in millimetres, of circular seals are normally distributed. The lower quartile is 39.239.2 mm and the upper quartile is 40.840.8 mm.

A

the mean diameter.

[2]
B

Use the normal distribution model to answer the following two parts.

I.

the standard deviation.

[2]
II.

Seals are accepted when their diameters are between 38.538.5 mm and 41.041.0 mm. the probability that a randomly selected seal is accepted. If you did not obtain σ=1.19\sigma=1.19, use this value.

[2]
C

The manufacturer wants a symmetric acceptance interval centred at 4040 mm that accepts 90%90\% of seals. the endpoints of this interval.

[2]
Question 47
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
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Meteor trails are detected independently by an observatory at a uniform average rate. The probability that no trail is detected during a 1010-minute interval is 0.300.30. Let XtX_t denote the number detected during tt minutes.

A

the mean number of trails detected in 1010 minutes.

[2]
B
I.

the probability that at least three trails are detected in 2020 minutes.

[2]
II.

the shortest whole number of minutes tt for which the expected number detected is at least 55.

[2]
C

During some months, cloud cover causes detections to occur in clusters separated by long periods with no observations. why the Poisson model may then be unsuitable.

[2]
Question 48
HL • Paper 3
Hard
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HL • Paper 3
Hard
Calculator Permitted

A renewable-energy site earns 3030 monetary units for each usable battery module produced and pays a fixed daily operating cost of 500500 monetary units. The numbers of usable modules produced independently by lines A and B are XX and YY, where E(X)=12E(X)=12, Var⁡(X)=8\operatorname{Var}(X)=8, E(Y)=9E(Y)=9 and Var⁡(Y)=6\operatorname{Var}(Y)=6. Daily profit is P=30X+30Y−500P=30X+30Y-500.

A

the expected daily profit.

[2]
B
I.

the standard deviation of the daily profit.

[2]
II.

A subsidy of cc monetary units is added each day. cc so that expected profit is 200200 monetary units, and the resulting variance.

[2]
C

On very hot days, both production lines are affected by the same cooling failure. Suppose that Cov⁡(X,Y)>0\operatorname{Cov}(X,Y)>0. how this affects the variance calculated in part (b)(i).

[2]

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Descriptive Statistics

Estimation & Confidence Intervals